Holmes: Bears Preview & Prediction
By Laurence Holmes
Last week, the Bears went vintage Lovie Smith in their win against Carolina. They got off the bus running the ball, asked the defense to turn the Panthers over and got solid field position from their special teams. That was without Jay Cutler behind center. With Cutler back one wonders if they will add the vintage Lovie formula to the gameplan for Seattle. Maybe you could call it 'Martz-Lite, with a twist of Lovie'.
Seahawks Offense vs. Bears Defense
Seattle is trying to find an identity. Adding Marshawn Lynch via trade will help. Lynch is a powerful runner who's never really lived up to his draft status, but he is capable of making a big play or two. The Bears are ranked third in the run defense giving up less than 80 yards a game. Lance Briggs was hobbling about the facility this week and didn't practice at all. It leaves me worried about his status for the game and that hurts the Bears run defense. If Briggs isn't ready to go, Brian Iwuh will get the start. Iwuh, had 3 career starts in a few years with Jacksonville. He's an excellent special teams player and will benefit from playing in a defense that funnels the ball carrier to the Weak Side Linebacker.
I still like Matt Hasselbeck and wish he had more help, but he doesn't. His receiving corps is filled with youngsters and rejects. At some point I think Golden Tate may turn into a player, but he's not there yet. During the week, Seattle traded away Deion Branch to the Patriots for a 4th round pick. Beyond their lack of talent and experience at receiver they've had offensive line injuries.
Israel Idonije has 4 sacks in his last 2 games. He has really taken advantage of being single blocked because all of the attention that Julius Peppers gets. Peppers talked last week about how his impact on a game goes beyond sacks and he's right. The attention that he gets from opposing offenses gives other guys opportunities to make plays. Last week, you saw that he can make plays without putting his hands on the quarterback. That tip/interception of a Jimmy Clausen pass is one of the best plays of the year. Look for the Bears to stack the box and dare Seattle to pass. Pete Carroll is a creative offensive mind, but he's mentioned this week that he's still adjusting to the NFL game. That's not good news 4 games in.
Bears Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
I know I just made a big deal about the Bears run defense. The Bears are ranked 3rd in the league, but guess who's ranked 2nd vs. the run…Seattle. In the case of the Seahawks, this number is misleading. Yes, they're holding teams under 3 yards per carry, but there's a very good reason for that: they don't stop the pass. There is no incentive for their opponents to run the ball because Seattle is one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (31st ranked). They've got a lot of names in their back-4, but when you have Lawyer Milloy playing safety for you in his 16th year it makes you very vulnerable.
With Cutler back, expect to see the Bears attack to Seahawks down the field. There will be no restrictions on the offense and there shouldn't be. Chris Williams will start at left guard. It's troubling that the Bears think he will have more success on the inside than at left tackle, but Mike Tice has done a pretty good job of improvising and shuffling pieces. It seems like the Bears offensive line is like the Isle of Misfit Toys. Each week it's mix and match. J'Marcus Webb and Edwin Williams did a solid job last week on the right side last week. Johnny Knox has been a non-entity over the last 2 games. Last week the gameplan held him back and against the Giants, Cutler's concussion did. He could put up big numbers in this game. Matt Forte has been Mr. Big Play this season, whether it was hitting home runs as runner or a pass catcher.
Special Teams
This is the real battle of this game. The Seahawks have a higher ranked punt returner (Tate) and kickoff returner (Leon Washington) than the Bears. Washington is a bowling ball. The Bears will have to make sure that they don't collapse their return lanes and wrap up. Usually the first hit doesn't put Washington down. It should be noted that Washington put up more than half of his return yards and both of his touchdowns vs. San Diego a couple weeks ago, but he's no fluke. Tate has big play potential. He's been very consistent and could pop one if the Bears aren't paying attention. Corey Graham has been fantastic on special teams for the Bears. He'll need to have a big game to keep the Seahawks from having hope. Brad Maynard has dropped 12 punts inside the 20, giving the Bears defense a great advantage.
The Seahawks coverage team is one of the best in the NFL. Teams are starting at an average on their own 21 on kickoffs. Ben Obomanu, Rory Lewis and Michael Robinson make their coverage team go. Olindo Mare has 5 touchbacks. Danieal Manning is having a terrific year. He's averaging 30 yards a return and his hard-charging, straight ahead style is a momentum weapon for the Bears. No one has more 40+ yard returns in the NFL since 2008 than Manning. He has 15. His closest competition only has 11. Will the Bears stadium ops remember to play Soulja Boy before each of Devin Hester's punts? For some reason that seems to be his trigger. Hey, whatever it takes to make Devin go right…
Prediction
Seattle is the definition of a team in flux. Carroll is trying to prove that he can have similar success on the professional level as he did at USC. I'm not sure if his rah-rah style works in the NFL, but we'll have to see. The addition of Lynch will add some punch to their offense, but they don't do enough well through the air to compete with the Bears defense.
If the Bears can keep the Seahawks special teams in check they should walk out of Soldier Field 5-1. Shouldthe Bears dominate this game and have a significant lead in the 4th quarter, they should try and preserve Cutler. If you're up 2 touchdowns sit #6 on the bench and don't expose him to harm. BEARS 27 SEAHAWKS 13.
-I'll be blogging before and during the game. Check me out on the pregame show with Hamp and Hub at 10a. I'll have a lockeroom report with Doug and O'B after the game and will be taking your Bears calls after Doug and O'B are done.
