Wisch: For The Bears, Numbers Don’t Add Up

By Dave Wischnowsky–

With a record of 7-3, the Bears aren’t a joke.

But I still can’t take them seriously.

Can you?

Yes, it’s nearly December and the team is tied atop the NFC North with Green Bay. And, yes, with weak sisters Minnesota and Detroit still remaining on the schedule, the Bears have a reasonable shot of getting at least nine wins and within striking distance of a postseason berth.

So, they might end up being a playoff team.

But I still can’t believe that the Bears are a good team.

The offensive line remains wobbly. The quarterback is yet to lead a team (any team) to a postseason game (any postseason game) since he was a senior in high school. And the head coach is still a guy who probably should have been sent packing after last season.

Beyond all that, the Bears just haven’t played anybody, let alone beaten them (Green Bay withstanding).
Ponder this: Of the Bears’ 10 opponents thus far, only two (the Packers and Giants) have winning records, and the foes have a combined record of 39-61, which equates to a wretched winning percentage of .390.

Meanwhile, the winning percentage of the seven teams that the Bears have beaten is even worse: .329.


With a résumé like that, it’s next to impossible to buy stock in the 2010 Bears. The numbers just don’t add up. Especially when you look at the rest of their schedule.

Of the six remaining opponents, their combined winning percentage is a solid .583 (35-25) and four of them (the Eagles, Patriots, Jets and Packers) are either leading their divisions or tied for the lead. In fact, that quartet is humming along at a sizzling combined winning clip of .750. Of the last six, only the Vikings and Lions are sub-.500, but both of those games are on the road, making them anything but gimmies for Chicago.

Now, I do like the Bears’ defense this season. And with Devin Hester (finally) returning kicks again, I like their special teams, too. But I still don’t like their chances to make any legitimate noise this season.

With a 7-3 record, I’ll admit that the Bears have already surprised me this season (I predicted 7-9). But I’ll still wait for them to stun me with a big victory before I buy anything that the team is selling.

Although, if they want to do that on Sunday vs. Philly, I’m all for it.

Do you agree with Dave? Post your comments below

davewisch Wisch: For The Bears, Numbers Dont Add Up

Dave Wischnowsky

If nothing else, Dave Wischnowsky is an Illinois boy. Raised in Bourbonnais, educated at the University of Illinois and bred on sports in the Land of Lincoln, he now resides on Chicago’s North Side, just blocks from Wrigley Field. Formerly a reporter and blogger for the Chicago Tribune, Dave currently writes a syndicated column, The Wisch List, which you can check out via his blog at http://www.wischlist.com.

  • Mad Adam

    The Bears season has been hard to put a finger on. The win at Dallas was a great road win against a top NFC team when it happened. Now, not so much. The Vikings win is about the same. It should have been a quality win, but isn’t.

    Before the season I was bravely picking 9 wins out loud, but in my heart thought 5 or 6 would be reality. Most of the season has been a surprise and I expect the rest of it too be that way.

  • Dave Wischnowsky

    It’s certainly been an unpredictable season, Adam. I think we’ll learn a lot on Sunday about how the Bears will fare the rest of the way.

  • Mad Adam

    The tipping point is going to be somewhere around 18 points. If the Bears can hold the Eagles near to that I feel they have a strong chance of winning. Anything over that and the defense or special teams will probably have to score some points.

    • Dave Wischnowsky

      Sounds about right to me. The Bears’ defense is good enough that it’s going to keep them in games. Really, the key is probably if Cutler can avoid turning the ball over vs. the good teams. Unfortunately, that’s a big if.

  • Allgood

    Yawn. Not much substance here and same repeat wording we can find on the trib and sun. I guess gone are the days of behind the scenes reporting that would give fans an insight on their team. Everyone said the same thing when we went to sb in 06. Same comments about giants season when they won and cardinals when they went. Beat who’s on your sched that’s all you can do. Last time I checked your not a judge awarding style points to each W.

  • bearblue

    nonsense. youre looking at percentages and everything else. al that matters is w-l and if you make the playoffs. when the giants spanked the unbeaten patriots(yes spanked) in the superbowl were the giants the best team all year? no but they are called superbowl champs. enjoy it for what it is.

  • Dave Wischnowsky

    Hey, Allgood and Bearblue, if you guys want to buy all-in with this team, then by all means, go for it. I personally think it’s folly, though. Until the Bears prove anything, they haven’t proved anything. That my take. And, really, I don’t think team is anything like 2006. Besides Bad Rex vs. Good Rex, I don’t recall anyone casting major doubts about that team four years ago. It was considered good by most everyone all year long.

    And, sure, in this blog I am looking at winning percentages, which — by this point of the season — I think is generally a pretty good indicator of how good the teams you’ve played are, or aren’t. I don’t think the Bears are a bad team — they are 7-3 — but I certainly don’t think they’re a championship-caliber one, either. We’ll see if they prove me wrong.

    Finally, Allgood, if you’re looking for behind-the-scenes reporting, there are plenty of places to get that. But I’m not a beat reporter and I don’t have that access, nor is that my role. Rather, I’m a blogger and I provide more of a fan’s perspective about sports, with the critical eye of a longtime journalist. That’s what I’m doing here, which is different from that of a guy who covers the team on a day-to-day basis.

    It’s hardly as if you can’t get that behind-the-scenes reporting that you crave — it’s out there. You’re just coming here expecting to find something other than what I’m providing and what I’m tasked to provide.With the Internet, you can now get more and different perspectives than ever before — and you can interact with your own opinions — which I think is a pretty cool thing for sports fans everywhere. Blogs are a supplement to other informational outlets, not a replacement. They’re not intended to be as such.

    In any case, best of luck to the Bears tomorrow. I hope they do prove me wrong, but I’ll wait to see something big from the team before I decide to buy what they’re selling.

  • Allgood

    Dave im not trying to poo poo what you do or what your interests are. If your producers/managers ask for this boring retread of words then kuddos for doing your job. I actually respect the fact you addressed my comment to begin with. With that said, I will never click on your cbslocal site ever again. Its probably my fault that I assumed that any savvy blogger in a major city would not have a press pass. Bloggers here in Dallas that have a decent following are granted as such, I came to your site because i take the time to tune into the Bears local radio scene every day even though Im in Dallas. I will now locate the station through a third party web library of stations. You stated that blogs are a supplement not a replace for info outlets, then do everyone a favor and put down the trib and sun before you do what you do.

    As far as the bears, i wont touch the eagles game or i told you so’swith you as it will fall on deaf ears, but this bears season is eerily similar to the 06 season. ‘Lucky’ wins vs Lions compared to Cardinals, up and down qb play that you mentioned, a top tier D, no name receivers that break out eg Berrian now Bennett, Hester returns and ST are a huge factor in the wins, etc. Lastly stating the bears arent a championship caliber team, theres a 97% chance you are correct. Way to go out on a limb there, and do me favor and keep hating on them as it seems to add fuel to the fire for that locker room.

    There is a lot of substance out there, you just have to take the time to research it and provide an educated opinion. Anything else is a waste of everyones time and an insult to the real fans that you are targeting.

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