Harris: Fantasy Football – Buy Low, Sell High
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By Adam Harris-
(CBS) Buying low and selling high is one of the most fun things in fantasy. Being ahead of the curve, knowing before hand, being able to say “I told you so,” is the underlying reason people play fantasy football.
Here are a few guys from around the league that, based on their expected value, Week 1 performance, upcoming schedule and personal belief that I think would be worth picking up/going after in a trade, or trading away for good value.
Sell High on Robert Griffin III. Consistency is the name of the game in fantasy football. Knowing what to expect, week in and week out is how to win. RGIII had a great Week 1. He was magnificently quick, awesomely accurate, amazingly mature, and impressively victorious – BUT it won’t be like that every week. In fact, there is no minimum points he can guarantee you week in and week out. The Redskins are vastly improved, but Griffin being a rookie frightens me as a fantasy owner. Rookie quarterbacks historically have a cap in season fantasy points, and Cam Newton was the exception last year. Newton converted on eight of his 15 carries inside the 5-yard line, and Griffin doesn’t have the size to do that. He is in a difficult division with very tough defenses. The potential for Griffin is there as your No. 2, and can occasionally win you a game with a stellar performance, but I prefer a Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, etc.
I feel that trading RGIII right now for one of the guys mentioned above would not lose you many season fantasy points, and could get you help at another position as well.
Notables Sells: Michael Vick (PHI), Mark Sanchez (NYJ) – don’t start him…ever, Tony Romo (DAL) – Great start in Week 1, but many options that will do same rest of year.
Buy Low on Russell Wilson. I just told you not to trust rookie QB’s for fantasy, so “Adam Harris, who are you crappin’?” But, Wilson is a great buy as a backup QB and as an asset to trade later. Wilson might be available now in your league on the waiver wire after his 153 yard, one touchdown performance last week, and he most certainly will be available after this week when the greatly improved Cowboys defense/secondary comes to town and Wilson’s numbers are sub-par yet again. If you are trading with a team that has Wilson, get him as a throw in. Later in the season you will be able to trade him to a desperate fantasy team with both QB’s injured and will in turn improve your WR or RB position.
Notable Buys: Jay Cutler (CHI), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) **We know what to expect from them week in and week out**
Sell High on Alfred Morris. If you were smart enough to listen to me two weeks ago, you would have Alfred Morris on your team right now, being able to say “I told you so…” to your league. I will admit, Morris showed his fantasy potential sooner than I expected, but nonetheless he scored over 20 fantasy points, and worked really well with the new-look Redskins offense. Now, SELL HIM. Look around the league for a team that needs running backs because they were too busy drafting two tight ends and five wide receivers and first round quarterbacks to get depth in the running back position. This year, running backs are hit or miss after the top five or so, and solid running backs are the key to winning week in and week out. Package Morris with a middle of the road WR and get a number one WR (Demaryius Thomas or Percy Harvin anyone?). You have a few weeks to do this, as I believe Morris will continue to carry the load, but we all know how Mike Shannahan works. By week four or five he could find himself another RB.
Notable Sells: Kevin Smith (DET), Frank Gore (SF), BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN) – Bernard Scott coming off injury will limit touches. **All these can be disguised and sold as No. RBs**
Buy Low on Jamaal Charles. In Week 1, Charles put up a minimum eight fantasy points, despite looking like the Charles before he tore his ACL in Week 2 last year. Charles will score in the top 15 of fantasy running backs this year, and could be acquired for something as little as a No. 2 WR and a hyped RB. Charles’s competition for carries is Peyton Hillis, but Hillis is not much of a threat to take points off of his fantasy plate. Act quickly on this, as Charles has nice fantasy match-ups upcoming. This week it’s the Bills, next week they are in New Orleans and then the Chargers come to town. I expect Charles to have a great week this week, and decent the two after.
Notable Buys: Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL) – I will say it again, Rodgers fits in better with this new-look Atlanta offense than Michael Turner. Rodgers will be a fantasy option later in the year. Chris Johnson (TEN) – Don’t give up on the former 2,000 yard rusher.
Sell High on Miles Austin. Look, I like Miles Austin, and so does Tony Romo, but the bottom line is Austin has iffy hamstrings. That is not good if you are a professional wide receiver in the NFL. Austin had a very nice Week 1, but all his production came in the second half, after the Giants concentrated on Dez Bryant (who dominated the first half). Austin will annoy you, being on the injury report week in and week out. Right now he is a little over valued, and owners who want to see Miles Austin succeed will slightly over pay for him. Maybe you can get yourself one of the running backs mentioned above?
Notable Sells: Stephen Hill (NYJ) – I still don’t trust any Jet on offense. Randy Moss (SF) – Maybe someone will think it’s the early to mid 2000’s.
Buy Low on Wes Welker. Catch a panic filled owner and steal a fantasy stud. Welker might not be the third best fantasy wide receiver in the league this year, but he could be way under valued after his three catch, 14-yard performance last week. Welker even dropped an easy ball, and was limited in looks because Julian Edleman lined up in the slot for a couple series. Someone might dump Welker this week for a good option as the slash, and if so jump on that opportunity. Welker is playing on a one-year contract, and needs a nice year. Yahoo! Fantasy Expert, Andy Behrens still likes Welker, with a little precaution. I will even take it a step further, and free willingly love Welker moving forward.
Notable Buys: Brandon Lloyd (NE) – I like Tom Brady throwing to any of my fantasy receivers. Titus Young (DET) – Young occasionally gets himself in trouble, but who doesn’t on the Lions. The talent is there.
Only offer reasonable trades, and make sure you keep emotion out of it. Happy fantasy football everyone….(made up holiday, but I like it).
Need more Fantasy Football advice? Ask Adam on Twitter @AHarris670