Zawaski: Blackhawks-Wild Preview
By Jay Zawaski--
(CBS) For the third consecutive season, the Blackhawks will face the Minnesota Wild in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This time, though, the Wild won't go down as easily as they did in years past. Since the calendar flipped to 2015, Minnesota has been the NHL's hottest team. Its success can be tied directly to its mid-January acquisition of goaltender Devan Dubnyk.
At the time, little was made of the trade. The Wild were in last place in the Central Division and in 12th place in the Western Conference. Their record was 18-19-5, and coach Mike Yeo had just used his "blow a gasket in practice" bullet. It seemed like a matter of time until Yeo was fired and the Wild's tailspin to the bottom continued.
Enter Dubnyk.
The Wild immediately turned it around, andhe went 27-9-2 down the stretch. He's now a Vezina finalist and one of the league's best stories.
Can the Wild match up with the playoff-proven Blackhawks? I think they can. The Wild might be the toughest remaining Western Conference opponent the Blackhawks could face.
The teams start their series Friday night at the United Center at 8:30 p.m.
Let's take a look at how the Hawks and Wild fared head-to-head this season. The 5-on-5 Corsi percentage follows the result.
Pre-Dubnyk
Dec. 16: Chicago 5, Minnesota 3
CHI 46 (52.8%) MINN 41 (47.2%)
Jan. 8: Chicago 4, Minnesota 2
CHI 23 (27.7%) MINN 60 (72.3%)
Jan. 11: Chicago 4, Minnesota 1
CHI 55 (51.4%) MINN 52 (48.6%)
With Dubnyk
Feb. 3: Minnesota 3, Chicago 0
CHI 40 (43.1%) MINN 52 (56.9%)
April 7: Minnesota 2, Chicago 1
CHI 53 (50%) MINN 53 (50%)
The Blackhawks went 3-0 against the Dubnyk-less Wild, while outscoring them 13-6. In the two head-to-head matchups after the trade, the Wild went 2-0 and outscored the Blackhawks, 5-1. Dubnyk stopped 56 of 57 Chicago shots in those games.
So let's take a closer look at the current Wild team.
Minnesota strengths
Goaltending
Until someone solves Dubnyk, this must be called a strength. The Blues were able to light him up twice in the first round. In their two wins, they scored three and six goals, respectively. Outside of those games, Dubnyk was terrific. In Game 5 and Game 6, he stopped a combined 66 of 68 shots against. Simply put, the Wild go as Dubnyk goes.
Center depth
The Wild have four capable centermen, starting with 23-year-old Finn Mikael Granlund, who has emerged as one of hockey's most promising young players. He's the pivot on the Wild's top line, where he skates between Zach Parise and Jason Pominville. In the series against the Blues, Granlund's line combined for 17 points. The Blackhawks will have to prioritize slowing down this line. It's a job that will surely be assigned to Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Brandon Saad.
From there, veteran Mikko Koivu provides solid two-way play. He's never been an elite scorer but is dangerous in his own right. He's also good at the dot, winning 55.2 percent of his regular-season faceoffs.
Wingers Jason Zucker and Chris Stewart are stellar as well. Zucker's a speed burner and could be a nightmare for Chicago's Michal Rozsival and Kimmo Timonen. Stewart can be a difference-maker when interested. So far, he's looked interested. Look for Koivu's line to defend the Toews line when the series shifts to Minnesota.
Third liner Charlie Coyle centers talented wingers Thomas Vanek and Nino Niederreiter. This line wont' play a ton of defense, but as far as third lines go, this one is quite talented.
Kyle Brodziak centers Matt Cooke and Justin Fontaine on the fourth line. If you're looking for a villain in this series, look to Cooke. More on him later.
Top-line talent
As I wrote earlier, the Wild's top line of Granlund, Parise and Pominville combined for 17 points against the Blues. Simply put, it's elite. Line matchups will be essential for the Blackhawks. Look for Chicago coach Joel Quenneville to obsess about getting Toews' line on the ice against these guys as often as he can.
Minnesota weaknesses
Presence of Matt Cooke
Cooke has done a better job at not being "Matt Cooke" over the last few seasons. A couple of years ago, you could put him in a category with Raffi Torres without batting an eye. The knucklehead element still lies in Cooke, though. It wouldn't shock me to see him stick out a knee or an elbow at some point in the series and hurt his team.
Defensive depth
I love the Wild's top pair of Ryan Suter and Jonas Brodin. As everyone knows, Suter's one of hockey's all-time workhorses. Brodin provides a more offensive game and more speed without being a defensive liability.
Beyond those two, the pairings of Marco Scandella and Jared Spurgeon and Jordan Leopold and Mathew Dumba shouldn't concern the Blackhawks much. All four are solid, but none are difference-makers. Leopold -- who is now most famous for his daughter's letter requesting the Wild trade for him -- is almost as done as Rozsival or Timonen. Even with those two liabilities, Chicago's defense stacks up much better than Minnesota's.
Prediction
I have the Blackhawks winning in seven games. This series is going to be ugly, and I truly believe that the Wild are strong enough to knock off the Blackhawks In the end, Chicago's depth and experience will be the difference -- but be prepared to chew your fingernails off for the next two weeks.
Jay Zawaski is the executive producer of the Spiegel and Goff Show on 670 The Score and the Blackhawks columnist for CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JayZawaski670.
