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Emma: Cubs' Success Is Ahead Of Schedule, So What's Next?

By Chris Emma--

(CBS) To this point, it's been a fun season at Wrigley Field. The Cubs' young, promising core has made its way into playoff contention, all while "The Plan" flourishes.

But a season of good vibes for the Cubs has been snapped into a state of reality. Of course, the St. Louis Cardinals have a way of doing that.

As of Monday, a much-needed off day, the Cubs stand on a five-game skid at 39-35, 1.5 games back of the Giants for the second wild-card spot and 11.5 back of the first-place Cardinals, who just swept Chicago out of the Gateway to the West.

For all the excitement of meaningful baseball at Wrigley Field, this season is reaching an important point. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer have some decisions to make. Do the Cubs try to compete for a championship this season while sacrificing an important part of the future or ride out this development process and hope it leads to the playoffs?

The Cubs have been playing at a good-but-not-great level this season. They had won four straight through the first two games of a home series with the Dodgers last, winning games against Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but they've dropped five in a row since.

According to Fangraphs, the Cubs have -20.5 offensive win shares entering Monday, which ranks 19th in baseball. By comparison, the Blue Jays rank first at a spectacular 61.2 mark, and the White Sox are dead last at a remarkably bad -83.3 number.

Most significantly, the Cubs have a team batting average of .245 compared to a batting average on balls in place (BABIP) of .308. The difference? A historic strikeout rate of 24.4 percent. That's simply an indication of young players learning major league pitching, a number that has and will continue to regress to the mean as the development process continues.

Anthony Rizzo continues at his tremendous 3.3 wins above replacement rate (WAR), with a sensational weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) of .418, and rookie Kris Bryant isn't far behind at a 2.8 WAR. However, Bryant has a .377 BABIP but a 30 percent strikeout rate, a mark of inexperience. Beyond those two, the Cubs haven't seen much offensive consistency. Among the greatest concerns is that Starlin Castro is a -0.4 WAR shortstop, even years into his major-league career.

On the mound, the Cubs carry 9.2 win shares, good for seventh in the majors. Adding to that, their xFIP (expected fielder independent pitching) is a 3.44, rating third in baseball. Jake Arrieta has been one of the better pitchers in the National League, Jason Hammel has been quietly strong and the $155-million man, Jon Lester, has been inconsistent but adequate.

The Cubs place fifth in baseball with 12.6 defensive win shares, behind only the Royals, Rays, Cardinals and Tigers. This is a stellar mark when considering how young these Cubs are.

So, what does it all mean?

As a whole, the Cubs have been inconsistent. The bats have worked as expected with a lineup filled with rookies, the arms have been good enough to win games but could use some help and the gloves have been solid enough to back the pitching. It all equates to a team in contention.

Here's the thing, though. The Dodgers and Cardinals, in a very small sample size, helped show Epstein and Hoyer where their ball club really stands relative to any World Series hopes. This Cubs team is built to compete but is a few key pieces away from a better shot. They rank roughly average to above average in most metrics that measure overall performance.

It's only fair to believe these young bucks will keep improving. Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler will become more polished big leaguers, and the troubling metrics will reach the mean. Lester should eventually become something close to the ace whom this team paid him big money to be.

Epstein and Hoyer must put their big baseball brains together and decide whether the Cubs should give up pieces of their future -- Javier Baez, Billy McKinney, Albert Almora, Daniel Vogelbach, etc. -- for a Cole Hamels, Jonathan Niese or Jacob deGrom, among other potential deadline acquisitions.

Realistically, the Cubs are ahead of schedule for their ultimate goal of competing for a World Series. Yet, they're not quite built to that level, at least not right now. An 81-81 season shouldn't be considered a disappointment in a bridge year to higher expectations, but this 2015 group has incidentally set the bar higher.

The blossoming of young talent is going strong in Wrigleyville, and "The Plan" has worked well to this point. An added bonus has been how the Cubs are in the thick of the playoff push, now just days before the Fourth of July, a date on which a year ago they sold two-fifths of their starting rotation to the Athletics in exchange for prospects headlined by Russell.

But the Cubs got a reality check from their rivals in St. Louis, and it's time for Epstein and Hoyer to make important decisions balancing win-now mode and key pieces for the future still developing in the minor leagues.

Much of the fun and good vibes from Wrigleyville have been put on hold as management decides how much of the future to gamble on win-now mode.

Follow Chris on Twitter @CEmma670.

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