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Durkin: With Contract Year Ahead, How Much Will Alshon Jeffery Be Worth?

By Dan Durkin--

(CBS) When a question about his contract negotiations came up, Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery grinned and evaded the query like a defensive back in the open field.

"I'm playing football," Jeffery said. "That's all I'm concerned about and focused on."

Jeffery's playing football, all right. Very well, to be more accurate.

Since being drafted in the second round in 2012, Jeffery's outshined all but one receiver from that class -- T.Y. Hilton of the Indianapolis Colts.

Since neither was drafted in the first round, picking up the fifth-year option (a new feature from the 2011 collective bargaining agreement) isn't an option for either club. They've both played themselves into an advantageous position at the negotiating table for their second NFL contract.

Jeffery, 25, will be general manager Ryan Pace's first test case for extending a homegrown talent, a rarity for the Bears. Unlike his predecessor, Phil Emery, Pace is keeping the door open to in-season contract negotiations.

"We're constantly talking to agents throughout the year," Pace said as the team kicked off training camp last week. "So it'll happen if it happens. I don't like to put parameters on anything regarding that."

In terms of in-season negotiations, the only time parameter that exists is the date of the last regular-season game -- Sunday, January 3, 2016. That's the last day a team can get a deal done with a player and have a portion of the contract count against the current year's salary cap. Thus, the Bears have virtually the entire season to evaluate Jeffery's first season as the unequivocal No. 1 target in the passing game.

Even so, the Bears must be proactive in securing Jeffery's services as he enters the prime of his career.

Doubts exist about the 6-foot-3 Jeffery being a game-changing receiver capable of single-handedly taking over a contest. His lack of an extra gear may prevent him from ever cracking the upper tier, but his productivity supports his place among the top of the second-tier receivers league-wide. He's firmly established himself as a threat in all three passing zones and a prototypical possession receiver.

Jeffery's numbers through three seasons compare favorably to peers who were drafted in the first three rounds of drafts within a year or two of 2012 (Jeffery's draft class) and have been or will soon be extended. In fact, composite measures of receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns put Jeffery fourth on the list behind Cincinnati's A.J. Green, Dallas' Dez Bryant and Hilton.

Click to enlarge the photo.

Circumstances like quarterback play and injuries impacted the numbers of players like Denver's Demaryius Thomas, Atlanta's Julio Jones and Green Bay's Randall Cobb. Jeffery himself missed six games as a rookie. 

Recently, Thomas and Bryant both inked four-year, $70-million extensions with $43 million and $45 million guaranteed, respectively. Cobb, on the other hand, bypassed more money on the open market and opted to stay in Green Bay for another four years for $40 million and $17 million guaranteed.

Those deals will help shape the market for players like Jeffery, Green and Julio Jones. Green and Jones will end up at or more likely above Bryant and Thomas' pay grade. Jeffery will likely find himself slightly above Cobb's deal, with an average annual value around $11 million to $13 million.

If the Bears are unable to reach an agreement with Jeffery, the franchise tag is an alternative.

The 2015 price tag for a franchise wide receiver was $12.823 million. The formula is based on the average of the top five salaries at a player's position in April of the year they are tagged. Given the Thomas and Bryant deals, that number is assured to go up in 2016.

Keep in mind, the tag can simply be a means to secure a player while negotiations -- typically frosty in nature -- take place. So the Bears reserve that right. However, assuming Jeffery continues his steady play, the Bears would be wise to set their own market and try to get the extension completed during the season.

Currently, the Bears have $8 million in free cap space. That number will shrink slightly once the offseason Top 51 salary cap rule expires on Wednesday, Sept. 9. That's ample space to help funnel new money into Jeffery's bank account this season and free up cash for next offseason.

While Jeffery maintains his focus is solely on football, his agent is keenly tuned in to the money being spent at the wide receiver position on players who have made similar -- and in some cases, less -- contributions to their team over their first three NFL seasons than his client has in Chicago.

Pace is trying to be measured in his approach during his first year on the job, but he can't be penny wise and pound foolish and cost the team more money in the long term.

Dan Durkin covers the Bears for CBSChicago.com and is a frequent contributor to 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter at @djdurkin.

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