The Bernstein Brief: The Cubs' Streak, By The Numbers
By Dan Bernstein--
CBSChicago.com senior columnist
(CBS) Fifteen wins in 16 games has turbocharged the Cubs' season, one that now sees a historically youthful team on an unlikely postseason trajectory.
Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA algorithm projected the Cubs to finish 82-80 this year, good for second place in the NL Central. When that number was released in late January, it seemed reasonably optimistic considering the unknowns entering what management declared was the start of their competitive phase.
Today, the Cubs are 67-49 with 46 games remaining. Amazingly, they don't even need a winning record from here on in to reach 90, having to only go 23-23. The bar has been set higher.
Per the playoff odds calculated by BP, the Cubs had a 40.2 percent chance of a postseason berth on July 29, a 20.3 percent chance of making the divisional round and a 2 percent chance of winning the World Series. Right now, they have an 89.5 percent playoff likelihood, a 47.9 percent chance of winning the coin-flip wild-card game and a 5.5 percent chance of winning it all -- considerably better than even the Pirates in front of them, who stand at 4.3 percent.
Their pursuers in San Francisco are looking at a more bearish assessment, with a 28.6 percent playoff chance.
Numbers will fluctuate with every outcome, but the Cubs appear to have seized control of a very real opportunity.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's "Boers and Bernstein Show" in afternoon drive. Follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein and read more of his columns here.
