Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 5
By Jack Thomason--
(CBS) Oh boy, do I hope you read last week's column. If you did, you were smiling as Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Coby Fleener, Karlos Williams, Allen Hurns and Ted Ginn all either helped you win in season-long league or to pocket some cash in daily.
Speaking of cash, my brother-in-law (not by my advice) rostered Bortles, Hurns and Ginn in hisguaranteed prize pool (GPP) lineup this past Sunday and had a great "sweat" to go along with it. Halfway through the late games, he was sitting in first place in the NFL Kickoff Million contest, winning $100,000 on a $3 entry. Talk about nerves!
We had to wait out the rest of the day, because his entire team had played in the early games. There was no Monday night hammer to help him hold on -- it was simply a waiting game to see how far he would slip. The anticipation was killing me, let alone him.
Needless to say, he didn't hold on to his $100,000 top spot, but he did end up 13th and pulled in an extra $1,500. This is what makes daily fantasy so much fun. It's also what makes the sleeper/punt plays so valuable when setting tournament lineups. Finding those one, two or three unique punt plays is the difference between cashing in and winning life-changing money.
Let's take a look at this week's sleepers/value plays for both season-long leagues and daily fantasy.
Quarterback
Josh McCown, Browns (at Ravens) -- A Browns quarterback? Surely there must be something wrong with me, right? I guess we will find out. Here's my thought process.
McCown has thrown for 697 yards and four touchdowns in his last two starts, while completing 60 of 90 pass attempts. Those are some gaudy numbers from McCown, who will travel to Baltimore this week. The Ravens defense isn't the same since losing Terrell Suggs, as they're struggling to generate a pass rush and can be beaten in the secondary. McCown has also found some weapons of late in Travis Benjamin, Duke Johnson and Gary Barnidge. As a cheap option in daily fantasy and a guy likely on waivers in your league, he's worth a look. The Ravens are favored by seven, which should mean plenty of throwing for McCown. (DraftKings: $5100; FanDuel: $6700)
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (vs. Jaguars) – The Jaguars allowed 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck to go for 282 yards, one score and a 63.8 completion percentage last week. I know Jameis Winston has been struggling, but with monster targets in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, Winston should be in for a good bounce-back game at home. The Jaguars rank 25th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric for pass defense, and that can only mean good things ahead for Winston, who has thrown for more than 200 yards and at least one score in each of his games this year. The Jaguars are a top-five run defense, so there shouldn't be much of a running back going for the Cubs. Look for Winston to target his big receivers early and often. (DK: $5100; FD: $6400)
Running back
Andre Williams, Giants (vs. 49ers) -- The 49ers are coming off an emotional and physical battle in which they hung in there defensively against the Packers, but now they must fly across the country for a Sunday night contest with the Giants. San Francisco's young and not that good, so this is a perfect place for an emotional letdown. The Giants are seven-point favorites, and that should make for plenty of clock-killing carries for Williams. He has double digit carries in each of the last two games, and he will see the goal-line work for a team that ranks ninth in points per game. His price is reasonable on FanDuel at $5100 and even better on DraftKings for $3100, but you won't be seeing many, if any, receptions out of him.
Duke Johnson, Browns (at Ravens) -- Two Browns' players? Seriously? I know, but the game script falls in Johnson's favor. For the same reasons I like McCown, I like Johnson. His snaps have increased weekly -- he played 61 percent of the snaps last week -- and is their most dangerous receiving option. The Browns are seven-point road dogs and should be passing plenty. Last week, Johnson saw 10 targets in the passing game, snagging nine of them for 85 yards and a beautiful 34-yard touchdown. He also chipped in eight carries for 31 more yards. Baltimore is stout against the run, allowing only one 100-yard rusher in its past 30 games (Le'Veon Bell last week, and it took overtime to do so). Look for Johnson to provide yards via the air, something Isaiah Crowell isn't a specialist at. His receiving ability makes him great for DraftKings' full PPR scoring. (DK: $4600; FD: $5900)
Receiver
Nelson Agholor, Eagles (vs. Saints) -- New Orleans ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, and it's just what the doctor ordered for the Eagles' struggling offense. Agholor has been relatively quiet to start the season, facing some of the league's tougher corners, but over his last two games, the ice had begun to thaw. He has hauled in seven receptions for 100 yards and is playing a team-leading 95 percent of snaps. Look for his first real breakout game this week as the Eagles, as 4.5-point home favorites, get their offense back on track. I like Agholor better on DraftKings ($4200) because of full PPR, but he can be played on either site (FD $5200).
Rueben Randle, Giants (vs. 49ers) -- The Giants are seven-point home favorites, and they rank ninth in offensive points per game (25.5). The news of Victor Cruz dealing with a setback while rehabbing from his calf injury only opens the door for Randle to gain consistency with Eli Manning. After Manning pointed out two weeks ago that the Giants needed to get Randle more involved, he has caught 10 passes for 147 yards and two scores. He will continue to be the second pass receiving option in this offense and has a nice matchup Sunday night against 49ers cornerback Tramaine Brock, who's sporting a negative grade from ProFootballFocus.com. Did I mention the 49ers rank 29th in defensive DVOA? (DK: $4400; FD: $5900)
Tight end
Owen Daniels, Broncos (at Raiders) -- Do you like stats? Well, that's exactly what this play is about. Yes, Daniels has been poor on the season, but the Raiders allow the most fantasy points per game to tight ends, giving up 95 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to the position. It seems almost too easy for opposing tight ends at this point. Even Browns tight end Gary Barnidge (who?) went for 105 yards and a score in Week 3. Fire up Daniels and expect Peyton Manning to exploit this weakness. (DK: $2700; FD: $4900)
Antonio Gates, Chargers (vs. Steelers) -- Coming off of a suspension, Gates may be a little rusty, but with Malcolm Floyd and Stevie Johnson battling injuries, he should be heavily involved -- especially in the red zone. Couple that with Pittsburgh's pass defense sorely lacking playmakers, and Gates should be a nice plug-and-play at his price points in both DraftKings ($4200) and FanDuel ($5500).
Others considered: Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler, Charles Sims, T.J. Yeldon, Dorial Green-Beckham, Tavon Austin, Richard Rodgers and Zach Ertz.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
