Daniel Murphy's Game 2 Homer Was Quite Improbable
(CBS) A lot is being made of Cubs ace Jake Arrieta's recent struggles, as he's allowed eight runs in his past 10 2/3 innings in the postseason after he'd only allowed four earned runs total in his previous 12 starts. Some believe Arrieta's heavy workload -- he's thrown 248 2/3 innings this season, which is 94 more than his previous career-high -- is finally catching up to him.
Perhaps more credit just needs to go to his opponents. At the least, that's certainly the case for two of the four runs he allowed in Sunday night's Game 2 loss to the Mets.
In the bottom of the first, after Arrieta had allowed a lead-off single to Curtis Granderson and ensuing RBI double to David Wright, New York second baseman Daniel Murphy stayed on a tear, hitting a two-run homer that was his fifth round-tripper of the postseason. It gave the Mets a 3-0, which was more than enough and was "the game right there," Cubs manager Joe Maddon would say afterward.
But in dissecting the matchup, there was really nothing Arrieta did wrong. Murphy simply put an improbable, golf-like swing on the 1-2 curveball that was out of the zone and in the spot where Arrieta wanted it.
How improbable of a homer was it? The pitch was only 12.76 inches off the ground, according to PITCHF/x data and as relayed in this Foxpsorts.com story.
Of the 14,318 pitches in MLB this season that hitters swung at that were that low, 74 percent swung and missed, 16 percent fouled them off and only 10 percent put those balls in play, per the Foxsports.com story.
There's even more improbability to it, of course:
Of the 1,457 balls in play on swings at pitches no higher than 12.76 inches off the ground, 73 percent resulted in ground balls. Even hitters who made contact at swings in these locations almost always hit it on the infield, which makes perfect sense given how low these pitches are. Only 12 percent of balls in play on these low swings resulted in a fly ball or a popup, and that's 12 percent of the subset of swings that put the ball in play to begin with. As a percentage of total swings at pitches that low, only 1.2 percent resulted in a fly ball or pop fly.
And then, there's the small matter of the fact that it went over the fence. Per Statcast (and queried from Baseball Savant), the ball was only coming off Murphy's bat at 91 mph, which is right around the average exit velocity for a ball in play in the major leagues. Including Murphy's home run Sunday night, only 49 balls hit at 91 mph or less went for home runs, and three of those were of the inside-the-park variety, so really, only 46 balls hit at that velocity cleared the fences.
After Murphy's homer, Arrieta would follow by getting 15 outs and allowing only one more hit -- an infield RBI single to Yoesnis Cespedes in the third inning after issuing a pair of walks, one intentionally to Murphy. Arrieta also struck out eight batters.
