Gabriel: Breaking Down The Bears' Possible-But-Not-Probable Path To The Playoffs

By Greg Gabriel--

(CBS) The Bears have played their best football in the last month, and after a thrilling victory against the Packers on Thanksgiving night, some have begun talking playoffs for Chicago.

So, do the Bears really have a chance at making the playoffs? What would they have to do?

After the 17-13 win at Green Bay, Chicago is 5-6. That's three games behind NFC North-leading Minnesota, so any playoff entry almost certainly would come as a wild card. Currently, the Bears are one game out of the final NFC wild-card spot, which is held by the Seahawks (6-5). The Falcons are also 6-5, while the Bucs and Giants (who are also tied for the NFC East lead with the Redskins) join the Bears at 5-6.

To make the playoffs as a wild card, Chicago would almost certainly have to win its remaining five games to get to 10-6. In most years, 10-6 gets you in the dance, but it's still no guarantee.

First, let's look at the Bears' remaining five opponents. On Sunday, they host the 49ers (3-8). The big advantage the Bears will have is they will go into the game with 10 days of rest and could be as healthy as any time during this season.

The following week, Chicago hosts Washington (5-6). The Redskins are similar to the Bears in trying to make a playoff push despite some struggles. The good news for Chicago is that Washington hasn't won a game on the road all season and will be coming off a short week of preparation after a Monday night game against Dallas.

Following those two home games, the Bears play the Vikings on the road. That will be Chicago's toughest test in the final five games. Minnesota rallied late for a 23-20 win at Soldier Field on Nov. 1.

Following that is a road game for the Bears against the improving Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston has been playing better, and the Bucs have a strong running game. We all know Tampa Bay coach Lovie Smith would like nothing better than to knock his former team out of the playoff race.

The Bears close out the season at home against the Lions. Had Chicago won the Oct. 18 game in Detroit, it would have more wiggle room here down the stretch. The Bears instead blew it, leaving no margin for error here late.

Given that the Bears are vastly improved, all these games are winnable, but not one is a sure shot. As I wrote, 10-6 usually gets you in the playoffs, but it's no lock for these Bears.

Why? Because of the Bears' divisional and conference records. Three of Chicago's wins have come against the AFC West. The Bears are 1-3 in the division and 2-5 in the NFC. That could come back to haunt the Bears. After head-to-head, the next tiebreaker for wild-card teams from separate divisions is conference record. After head-to-head, the next tiebreaker for wild-card teams from the same division is divisional record.

For both scenarios, Chicago could be on the outside looking in.

There's plenty of competition for the final wild-card spots right now. The Packers hold the first wild-card spot with a 7-4 record and have a 5-3 mark in the NFC and 2-2 in the division. The Seahawks (6-5 overall and 5-4 in the NFC) currently hold the sixth slot with a tiebreaker over the Falcons (6-5 overall and 4-4 in the NFC). Atlanta has played poorly recently, losing four in a row.

It's also important to note that the Seahawks hold the tiebreaker over the Bears because of a 26-0 win on Sept. 27 in Seattle.

The other club from the NFC South with a chance is Tampa Bay, which shares a 5-6 record with the Bears and boasts a 4-3 record in the NFC. That makes Chicago's contest at Tampa Bay on Dec. 27 a must-win.

No team in the NFC East currently has a winning record, so it will only send one team to the playoffs.

The Bears' logical and plausible path to the playoffs would be winning out to get to 10-6 and having the Seahawks and Falcons lose at least twice more apiece to fall to 9-7 or worse.

Seattle's remaining games, in order, are at Minnesota, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland, vs. St. Louis and at Arizona.

The Falcons have a tougher schedule because of two games left against the undefeated Carolina Panthers. Atlanta's remaining games, in order, are at Tampa Bay, at Carolina, at Jacksonville, vs. Carolina and vs. New Orleans.

As you can see, the road to the playoffs is possible for the Bears, but it's not probable. Not only do the Bears have to win out, they also need help.

Still, to be talking about a playoff path of any sort with December nearly upon us shows how far the Bears have come in a short time.

Greg Gabriel is a former NFL talent evaluator who is an on-air contributor for 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter @greggabe.