Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 15
By Jack Thomason--
(CBS) It was just another brutal week of injuries -- when will it end?
I guess in two weeks, when we are over with season-long fantasy football. There are a lot of guys out there now for your season-long leagues to pick up if you dealt with significant injury and still advanced, but there are also some string value plays for daily fantasy that won't be on your season-long waiver wire. I'll have a mix of both in this week's article.
Let's take a look at this week's sleepers/value plays for both season long and daily fantasy.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (at Chargers) – You never know what the Dolphins are going to do offensively or what they won't do, so there's risk here. But the price is right (FanDuel: $6900; DraftKings: $51000) and so is the matchup. The Chargers are allowing 25.7 points per game, good for 27th in the NFL, and rank 29th in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA metric. Tannehill also has the ability to get free and use his legs for additional points as the Dolphins use a fair amount of the read-option.
Philip Rivers, Chargers (vs. Dolphins) – On the opposing side of Tannehill, Rivers is sitting at $7400 on FanDuel and $5500 on DraftKings. Those prices are coming at a value for a quarterback who shreds bad defenses with regularity. Courtesy of Rich Hribar on Twitter last week: Rivers has finished as the QB7, 1, 9, 4, 7, 19 and 4 against bottom-half defenses in points per pass attempt. Guess where the Dolphins sit? In the bottom half. Fire up Rivers and don't look back, even with the injuries to his receivers.
Running back
David Johnson, Cardinals (at Eagles) – I guess we will have to continue to put Johnson here until his price adjusts accordingly. He's at $6500 on FanDuel and $5700 on DraftKings, a value play on either site. The Eagles rank 21st in Football Outsiders' run DVOA, and Johnson has totaled back-to-back games with 24 touches and at least 120 total yards. Johnson almost had back-to-back games with a touchdown too, but a trip and stumble at the goal line plus an errant pass messed that up. The early news has Andre Ellington unlikely to play this Sunday, so majority of touches will go to the stellar rookie again.
Denard Robinson, Jaguars (vs. Falcons) – After T.J. Yeldon exited with a knee sprain last weekend, Robinson took over as the feature back for the Jaguars and totaled 86 yards and a touchdown on 15 touches. A large part of that was in garbage time given how badly they were beating the Colts. Robinson did see some goal-line work and scored from the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter, which bodes well for the team being more committed to the run game in the red zone. Robinson will be the horse with Yeldon likely sitting out against the Falcons, who rank 24th in run DVOA and have been gifting points to opposing running backs. At $6300 on FanDuel and $4600 on DraftKings, Robinson makes for a good play.
Receiver
Michael Floyd, Cardinals (at Eagles) – Since regaining full health, Floyd has been on a tear. He has four 100-yard games and four touchdowns in his last five outings. Carson Palmer continues to throw the ball all over the yard, and it doesn't matter whether it's on the road or at home. This week the Cardinals face off against the porous Eagles secondary that has allowed the opposing WR1 to score in 12 of 13 matchups. Floyd will see plenty of Byron Maxwell and Eric Rowe on Sunday, and he will be heavily favored by Pro Football Focus in both matchups. (FD: $6100; DK: $4400)
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (vs. Browns) – The Seahawks' passing offense is white hot right now, and while Doug Baldwin has been on fire, Lockett is right behind him. He has an absurd 90.9 percent catch rate over his last four games, hauling in 20 receptions on 22 targets for 280 yards and four scores. The dynamic Lockett is doing his best Antonio Brown impression and should continue to do so at home against the Browns. (FD: $6000; DK: $4200)
Tight end
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (vs. Bears) – Rudolph has had only one real clunker over his last four games and gets a Bears defense that ranks 27th against the tight end in DVOA. Chicago just allowed Washington tight end Jordan Reed to touch to go for nine receptions, 120 yards and a score. While I'm not expecting those numbers for Rudolph, he can likely be found on waivers and presents good upside and value at his price point of $5000 on FanDuel and $3600 on DraftKings.
Eric Ebron, Lions (at Saints) – This is strictly a punt play. Brandon Pettigrew has torn his ACL and is out for the year, and the Lions play the Saints. The Saints rank 32nd in DVOA against tight ends and are allowing 78.7 yards per game in that regard. With Ebron's prices of $4800 on FanDuel and $3000 on DraftKings, there's certainly plenty of opportunity for him to outperform those salary requirements. It's just not for the faint of heart.
Others considered: Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Brandon Bolden, Tim Hightower, John Brown, Malcom Floyd, Zach Miller and Eric Ebron.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter@jthomason77and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
