Bernstein: Have NFL Teams Fired Too Many Coaches?
By Dan Bernstein--
CBSChicago.com senior columnist
(CBS) I never thought I'd end up praising Colts owner Jim Irsay as an example of good sense and rationality among NFL owners, but here I am.
The eccentric Irsay opted against firing his head coach and/or general manager in the aftermath of a fractious 8-8 season, instead urging them to work through their differences and continue on. It was gutsy — definitely not the easy way out that so many teams take with firings that are more punitive than productive.
What's likely is that Irsay looked at the list of possible replacements and understood that he couldn't do better than coach Chuck Pagano.
Have you seen some of the names connected to the six remaining openings? These are reaches and retreads, guys we've never heard of and trail-worn desperadoes. Not helping is the double-edged sword of the Rooney Rule necessitating a minority candidate interview, which provides opportunity but diminishes some applicants with the appearance of tokenism.
The rock star of this hiring season isn't even a sure bet. Adam Gase, the offensive mind credited with maximizing Jay Cutler, had his pick of jobs coming off the Bears' 6-10 season. He opted for Miami, largely because the team also has a salvageable quarterback, and he may need to work similarly to repair Ryan Tannehill amid reports of personality conflicts in that locker room.
So now it's the Buccaneers, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Browns and 49ers looking at the big blob of potential head coaches that contains guys like Doug Marrone, Hue Jackson, Doug Pederson, Pat Shurmur, Dirk Koetter, Sean McDermott and Teryl Austin. Who is Matt Patricia? Why is Chip Kelly calling teams to beg for interviews? What franchise thinks Tom Coughlin is the best fit for next year and beyond as he turns 70?
It's certainly not fair to some of these prospects to dismiss their chances to succeed out of hand. Part of the problem now is that so many frightened, over-protective head coaches prevent or limit their lieutenants from talking to the media, and we don't get to know them as publicly as in the past. Also contributing to the environment is the fact that the collegiate emperors are happier than ever to stay put. Guys like Brian Kelly at Notre Dame make plenty of money, have total control and unlimited power and enjoy some sense of professional stability. Once hired by an NFL team, the clock ticks for two years until they're canned by a twitchy owner acting like a sports radio caller.
The data back this up, too. Statistical analyst Scott Lindholm looked at recent NFL moves, matching head coaching turnover to results. His conclusion is that change for it's own sake has little actual value.
"It becomes apparent that many are chasing chimeras and looking for solutions in a manner that won't deliver them," he said. "The most inept teams of the past 15 years — Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland and Washington — made frequent trips to the coaching carousel, often as an excuse as opposed to a solution."
That' why Irsay's decision stands out, now. The same can be said for the Rams, perhaps, who are retaining Jeff Fisher despite logging a four-year record of 27-36 and never finishing higher than third in the NFC West. As they move to Los Angeles, it may be entirely true that Fisher still is better for them than any real alternative.
We've come to a place, then, where all of the churning at the position has made more firings impractical.
"It would appear a point of diminishing returns — actually diminishing marginal utility — was reached this year," Lindholm said. "Constantly looking for the next one is a fool's game. It looks like at least two teams figured that out this year, and several more just might, the really hard way."
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's "Boers and Bernstein Show" in afternoon drive. You can follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein and read more of his columns here.
