Durkin: NFL Conference Title Picks
By Dan Durkin--
(CBS) And then there were four.
Without question, the NFL's best remain standing for conference championship weekend. By any measure, the four finalists are the most complete teams in the league.
In the NFC, eight straight championship games have been decided by seven points or fewer, which is the longest streak in conference history. In the AFC, the Patriots can become the 13th team in league history to make the Super Bowl after winning it the prior season.
Here's my take on how these intriguing matchups might play out.
(Home team in all CAPS)
Patriots 27, BRONCOS 20 -- Sunday, 2:05 p.m. (CBS)
Sunday's AFC Championship marks the 17th time that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have faced each other head to head. Brady holds an 11-5 record overall, but Manning is 2-1 in AFC Championship games. As much as you try to shift the narrative away from the two quarterbacks, the game boils down to the two trigger men.
For the Patriots, their biggest challenge will be dealing with a fierce pass rush with a banged-up offensive line. Can Brady's front five provide enough time for him to work the ball to Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski?
Key in on where the Patriots line Gronkowski up. They'll likely be shifting him pre-snap to get man or zone coverage indicators from a Broncos defense that plays a lot of man but has been playing more zone of late. This will help Brady and his receivers to make their adjustments and get the ball out quickly to their best matchup.
Defensively, the Patriots will stack the box all game with an eighth defender and play a lot of "Bear" front looks to affect blocking rules of the Broncos' zone-based scheme. The Patriots will do all they can to put the game onto Manning's weathered right arm and force him to beat them down the field, which he won't be able to do.
The Patriots are the better team and will once again represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Cardinals 31, PANTHERS 24 -- Sunday, 5:40 p.m. (FOX)
Two former Heisman Trophy winners and first-overall picks face off in Charlotte in the NFC Championship. It's also likely that Cam Netwon will add league MVP to his resume at the end of this season, with Carson Palmer likely finishing second.
Stylistically and schematically, these teams are complete opposites on both sides of the ball. Arizona's a vertically based passing offense with a hybrid, aggressive, attacking defense that uses exotic pressures and combination coverages. On the other hand, Carolina's a diverse, physical running team and a static, fundamentally sound zone-based defense with elite talent at crucial positions.
The Cardinals' deep passing attack puts a lot of stress on their front five to hold up and provide sturdy pockets for Palmer, who can slide in the pocket but isn't a threat to break it and beat a team on the move. Carolina has a strong defensive line and the league's best nickel linebackers -- Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis -- who can chase in space and cover wide areas in their passing zones.
If the Cardinals can hold up with their front five and get all five eligible receivers out into routes, I like the ability of Bruce Arians and Palmer to devise a game plan that takes advantage of the Panthers' zone-based structure.
For the Panthers offense, I have wondered all year when their limited weapons on offense would catch up to them. This may be the week.
With a player like cornerback Patrick Peterson, who doesn't require safety help, Arizona defensive coordinator James Bettcher will be able to safely use safety help in the box. He'll also be able to play more base fronts, knowing he won't have to provide help on anyone other than Greg Olsen.
I've maintained since the middle of the season that the Cardinals are the best team in the NFC, and my feelings haven't changed.
Regular season record: 162-94
Playoffs record: 6-2
Dan Durkin covers the Bears for CBSChicago.com and is a frequent contributor to 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter @djdurkin.
