Levine: Long-Term Deal Still Makes Sense For Jake Arrieta, Cubs

By Bruce Levine--

CHICAGO (CBS) -- The one-year, $10.7-million agreement between ace right-hander Jake Arrieta that set a record mark for a second-year arbitration pitcher made good sense for both sides now. Moving forward, a long-term contract getting done before the end of spring training makes even more sense.

Arrieta netting $10.7 million was testimony to the incredible year he had in a 2015 in which he won the National League Cy Young award after going 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA. What's more difficult to discern is the long-term status of Arrieta and what the club's agenda is.

A game of future projections will now take place between agent Scott Boras and the Cubs brass that's led by president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer. Arrieta is under club control through the end of the 2017 season.

Using the variables of performance and age, the Arrieta you see presently who will be pitching at age 30 in 2016 should try to get paid soon for the future. The old adage is you let the team you're playing for win the first long-term deal you sign. This logic is based on protecting your family with financial security in the present moment, in case of injury or sudden attrition hits sooner than expected.

In this case, a four-year deal that pays $85 million to $90 million with two club options that can tack on another $50 million would be the ballpark figures to consider. The most Arrieta can earn seeing the arbitration process through 2017 is around $30 million; this would assume another great 2016 season by Arrieta, which would allow him to max out arbitration dollars for a 2017 salary figure that's near $20 million to go along with his $10.7 million in 2016.

A four-year deal that goes into effect for 2016 that averages $23 million annually would net Arrieta $46 million over the first two years of the deal, or around $16 million more than he can earn by seeing arbitration all the way through.

A contract structured around four guaranteed years and then two club options would protect the Cubs from having to project Arrieta's performance from ages 32 to 38, which will be the case for any suitor when if he hits the open market after the 2017 season. A longer-term deal now would make the Cubs feel better because they'd be investing big in Arrieta's age 30 to 34 seasons, with team options and buyouts involved for age 35 and 36 seasons should his skills and power pitching game diminish.

Under the masterful guidance of pitching coach Chris Bosio, Arrieta has turned the corner on what was a failing career in Baltimore. A positive approach on and off the field and a grueling workout regiment have transformed Arrieta into one of the elite hurlers in the game.

Since arriving to the Cubs in midseason 2013, Arrieta's gone 36-13 with a 2.26 ERA. During that period of 67 starts, Arrieta has amassed a 3.89 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.94 WHIP. Only an erratic innings pitched mark would stand in the way of the Cubs feeling good about a long-term deal for their ace.

Arrieta had never pitched beyond 156 2/3 innings before his monster year of 2015. Including the three playoff starts and the regular season, Arrieta pitched 248 2/3 innings last season, 92 more innings than his previous high. From 2010 through 2012, Arrieta averaged about 111 innings pitched per season.

The great protection for the Cubs or any team that offers a long-term deal is the 40 percent write-off that's afforded every club owner for baseball players' contracts. Due to the fact that players aren't only the contracted employee of the team but a "depreciating asset," the club can write off big salaries to the 40-percent IRS limit. Owners often purchase a large (up to 70 percent) insurance policy on many of the multi-million-dollar contracts they agree to. Although the premiums are high, this protection makes the long-term deal that goes bad less traumatic for the franchises involved.

Both the Cubs and Arrieta would be in a good place if the two sides agree on this sensible approach. The Cubs may want to watch him put up big numbers for one more season before committing to a long-term deal, but Boras likely wouldn't consider letting Arrieta sign a long-term deal less than a year before his free-agent status kicks in. The timing is still right for a deal now.

Bruce Levine covers the Cubs and White Sox for 670 The Score and CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter @MLBBruceLevine.