Durkin: Bears' Ryan Pace Prepares For 'Dangerous Water' In Free Agency
By Dan Durkin--
(CBS) As an avid triathlete, Bears general manager Ryan Pace has no aversion to jumping into water. However, when it comes to his day job, he takes a bit more caution.
From the first time Pace was introduced last January, he emphasized that his philosophy was to sustain organizational success by building through the draft. That goal isn't unique.
Every team aspires to build the foundation of its squad through the draft and develop talent internally. It's a cheap labor market, which affords teams protection to retain players should they prove worthy of a second contract.
However, reaching this goal is challenging -- particularly for a team like the Bears, whose failures in the draft over the past decade are well-chronicled. Repeated misses have left the team in a lurch.
"We have a lot of needs right now," Pace said while speaking at the NFL Combine. "Our goal -- and I think a lot of successful franchises -- we've talked about this before, you're drafting well and you don't have to tread in this dangerous water as much as you might have to early on."
There's subtext to that quote. Pace reinforced his goal to be a draft-driven team, but he realizes the immediate needs will force the team to venture into free agency for more immediate, and ideally, proven commodities in order to bridge the talent gap that exists between his club and the rest of the league.
"Free agency's risky," Pace said. "We have to be careful with this."
Free agency is far from a sure bet. Every year, there are examples of teams that spend big in free agency and never come close to realizing the expected return on their investment.
Pace doesn't need to look at other teams to prove this point; he can look at his first dip into the free agency pool last season. While outside linebacker Pernell McPhee and cornerback Tracy Porter were successes, safety Antrel Rolle and receiver Eddie Royal fell far short of expectations.
Armed with $60 million in free cap space, the Bears have an opportunity to sign two to three starters. Their first order of business is to take care of their own free agents, none of whom is more crucial than receiver Alshon Jeffery. If the team is unable to find an intersection point as they "aggressively" negotiate a deal, the franchise tag is the obvious alternative.
The Bears also need to figure out what the market is for Porter and tight end Zach Miller. Once that's addressed, they must turn their attention to the unrestricted free agent (UFA) market.
"I feel really good of where we're at right now as far as our preparation," Pace said. "Josh Lucas, Champ Kelly, our pro scouts Brad Obee, David Williams, they've done a great job of setting our UFA board. Now it's just a matter of being smart and calculated with how we approach it."
The Bears will be aggressive at certain positions as they look at the strengths of this free-agent class. Positions like safety, defensive line, inside linebacker and offensive line should have some value plays.
"Our challenge is identifying good players, but then identifying good values, too," Pace said. "The process for us, we stack our free-agent board, we identify the players that we'd like to target, and then we identify salary parameters where we think they fit in. We know when the gun goes off, and we're working outside of those parameters, it's gets a little uncomfortable. That's when you have to make a tough decision."
Where the Bears have prioritized their free-agent dollars will be revealed in the coming weeks. The legal tampering period starts on March 7, and free agency begins on March 9.
Perhaps the Bears look to bolster their safety position with younger talents like George Iloka (Bengals), a rangy, hybrid safety who fits the interchangeable mold preferred by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio? Or a strong safety like David Bruton (Broncos), who's aggressive in the box but also fluid enough to flip his hips in coverage.
The Bears could also target another former Bronco, inside linebacker Danny Trevathan, whom Denver selected in the sixth round of the 2012 draft, when John Fox was still in charge. At 26, Trevathan's a versatile, three-down linebacker who would instantly fill a big need. Jerrell Freeman (Colts), who has battled injuries, is a stat-sheet stuffer when healthy.
If defensive end Malik Jackson (Broncos) hits the open market, he will be one of the most coveted defenders and his price tag may be outside the Bears' comfort zone. Undercard players like Jaye Howard (Chiefs) and Akiem Hicks (Patriots) would be immediate starters at five-technique, a position of great need for the Bears.
The Bears will use the player acquisition period to ultimately determine where Pro Bowl offensive lineman Kyle Long will play, and a return to guard doesn't sound like it's out of the question. Perhaps Chicago may target Mitchell Schwartz (Browns), a rock-solid right tackle, or versatile guards like Brandon Brooks (Texans) or Jeff Allen (Chiefs).
Seeking upgrades at so many positions, the Bears can go in several directions. Look for them to make a few targeted moves at the outset of free agency, then let the market come to them.
Pace has to be active to correct the course of the franchise. But deep down, it's clear he wants to limit the amount of future time he spends treading in the dangerous waters of free agency.
Dan Durkin covers the Bears for CBSChicago.com and is a frequent contributor to 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter at @djdurkin.
