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Gruen: Top NCAA Tournament Storylines

By Seth Gruen--

(CBS) For weeks now, we knew that heading into this NCAA Tournament that we would be as confused as Charles Barkley at a touch screen.

And in because you didn't learn anything from the platitudes Barkley, whom I love as an NBA analyst, spewed on last night's Selection Show, I'm here to answer any questions heading into this year's tournament.

There are a number of champions that could appear on any one person's sheet, and this year's field offers depth in the double-digit seeds that adds to the possibility of early round upsets.

So we have the questions (answered) heading into the 2016 NCAA Tournament.

Who will win it all?

Obviously asked every year, it still reigns most important. If you've stayed with this column all season, you would know I've been on Michigan State for more than a month now.

There's no reason to deviate from that now. The Spartans have, I believe, the nation's best player in Denzel Valentine. Look at the history of the tournament: The team with the best player often wins.

Valentine has a supporting cast too. The Spartans excel at the two very important aspects of the game: defense and shooting.

Both are key components to a deep tournament run. At their best, there isn't a team in the country that can beat them.

Did the Spartans get hosed when they got a two-seed?

Michigan State should have earned a one seed, but was it hosed? Not really.

Had Michigan State fallen on the top line, it likely still would have been paired in the same bracket as Virginia. And if there's a nightmare matchup for the Cavaliers, it's the Spartans and their shooting.

Putting shooting on the floor is the best way to beat Virginia's pack-line defense. Michigan State has it.

I would also argue that a potential matchup against No. 3 Utah for Michigan State is easier than the one Virginia faces in No. 4 Iowa State in the Sweet 16 (if you advance chalk).

What is the most intriguing first-round matchup?

Keep your eye on No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh in the East Regional.

While I could see either team upsetting Xavier, the weakest No. 2 seed, in the second round, the game features a pair of athletic junior forwards looking to make their impressions on the NBA scouts.

Nigel Hayes played in the shadows of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker — at least on a national level — last year but leads Wisconsin in scoring this season (16.3 points per game). Pitt's leading scorer, Michael Young, has elevated his game this season too.

Both players are considered second-round picks and would benefit from returning for their senior seasons.

What is the most intriguing (potential) second-round matchup?

Look to the South Regional and potential four-five matchup between California and Maryland.

The Terrapins, who spent time in the top-five this year, were said to have the nation's best starting lineup. Then Maryland lost five of its last eight, but that doesn't make them any less talented. Cal has two potential lottery picks in freshmen Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb.

Neither team is a great draw for top overall seed Kansas in the Sweet 16.

Seth Gruen is columnist for CBSChicago.com, focusing on college sports. You can follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.

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