The Bernstein Brief: Should Chris Sale Go Back To His Old Self?
By Dan Bernstein--
CBSChicago.com senior columnist
(CBS) The combination of White Sox left-hander Chris Sale's hot start and a noted drop in velocity resulted in an interesting discovery -- he and pitching coach Don Cooper had decided that Sale would try to pitch to contact more, letting him go deeper in games by not trying to strike everybody out.
It sounded good, even as it raised questions about which came first, the slower pitches or the new strategy.
With Sale's fastball averaging 92.9 mph and a slider at a career-low 77.9, the results suggested that everything was working just fine. That is, until his start against Cleveland, then two more at Kansas City and Detroit. In those last three outings, Sale has combined for a total of just 16 2/3 innings, giving up 23 hits and 12 earned runs while walking eight and striking out 16.
An analysis a month ago by Fangraphs.com did a deep dive to determine that the "new" Sale at that point wasn't an improved pitcher, concluding, "Until that K rate surges, driven by rebounds in his average fastball velocity (down by over a full mph to 92.9 this season) and his swinging-strike rate (down by almost half to a career low 9.8 percent), we are not seeing peak Chris Sale." It also predicted the regression we've seen in line drive rate that has pushed his ERA upward.
Sale has been one of baseball's best starters for half a decade because he threw really hard and struck people out. If he can still do that, it might be nice to start doing it again and limit all the variables that come with balls in play.
The White Sox appear to be going for it this year, whatever it is. Sale shouldn't be trying to save himself for something else.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's "Boers and Bernstein Show" in afternoon drive. You can follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein and read more of his columns here.
