Bernstein: Justice Done For Jose Quintana
By Dan Bernstein--
CBSChicago.com senior columnist
(CBS) It shouldn't have taken this long for White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana to make an All-Star team, not this far into his career and certainly not this season.
When the first selections for injury replacements were beginning late last week, Quintana was leading all AL pitchers in fWAR. Really consider that for a second, that the best pitcher in the league, as measured by a comprehensive and objective statistic, still wasn't considered worthy of the honor.
First Corey Kluber was selected for Marco Estrada's spot, fair enough considering Kluber and Quintana were within decimal places in that stat (and Estrada's 1.8 WAR ranking him as MLB's 38th-best pitcher is something for another time). Then when Danny Salazar's sore right elbow caused him to bow out, Quintana finally got his shot.
At the break, Quintana stands at 2.9 WAR, eighth among pitchers in all of baseball. Salazar is at 2.4, ranked 17th.
For local reference, the Cubs' Jake Arrieta has accrued the same 2.9 wins of value so far, while the White Sox's Chris Sale has compiled 2.6. MLB's leader is Clayton Kershaw at a staggering 5.5, a full win-and-a-half more than the next-best, the Mets' Noah Syndergaard.
What's more, Quintana has regularly been an excellent first-half pitcher whose traditional (read: less useful and determinative) statistics have clouded his true effectiveness and limited his All-Star consideration in the minds of less-enlightened managers making the selections for their respective staffs. In his five-year career, Quintana has outperformed his own overall numbers in his pre-break splits, allowing an opposing OPS of just .669, a WHIP of 1.17 and a FIP of 3.35, compared to his already strong career marks of .699, 1.24 and 3.45.
In other words, he has been a very good pitcher who has been at his best for a while specifically during the evaluation period for a midseason accolade, yet he hadn't achieved the honor until now, and not without needing help from annual roster attrition.
It's wrong and dumb and still due largely to the pitcher win statistic, an old warhorse that needs to be put down and out of its misery. Quintana is 40-42 for his career, 7-8 this year, and has had only one "winning" season -- a 9-7 mark in 2013. It pains me to even be writing about this awful criterion, having committed to ignore it in an effort to help baseball be smarter, but here we are.
A great pitching performance can earn a loss, and a terrible one can earn a win. Commit that to memory, or make it a daily mantra.
Quintana is an extreme example of how obscured really good pitching can be by circumstances beyond its control, such as run support and defensive help. Writers and broadcasters contribute to the problem by regurgitating antiquated narratives concerned with the useless win statistic that are fundamentally unfair to pitchers who are now in an environment armed with better ways to measure their success and value.
May Quintana's appearance in an otherwise meaningless game at least serve as a reminder that we have a responsibility to see what's real in pitching performances and what's not.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's "Boers and Bernstein Show" in afternoon drive. You can follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein and read more of his columns here.
