(CBS) The Bears open the 2016 regular season Sunday with a road contest against the Texans.
Expectations for Chicago among fans can vary quite a bit, with two straight bad seasons and a lackadaisical preseason leading to many concerns while others believe a revamped defensive front seven and coach John Fox’s second-year magic offer plenty of reason for hope.
So what do the statistical gurus think? Luckily, FiveThirtyEight.com has it covered.
Entering the new season, the Bears have a 21 percent chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight. Chicago is projected by the site’s model to win 7.1 games, so basically a 7-9 season.
The Bears slot 25th out of the 32 NFL teams in the Elo Rating, which is FiveThirtyEight’s measurement of who’s the best team. The Bears have a 9-percent chance to win the NFC North, a 5-percent chance to earn a two-two seed in the NFC and a less-than-1-percent chance to win the Super Bowl, per FiveThirtyEight.
For more context, the Bears opened at 7.5 in the wins totals set by Bovada, so many experts and computer models are in the same range of expectations.