By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) I feel like there were several guys who I could’ve left on this list from last week to this week and still had them considered great values. Their prices aren’t increasing enough to justify going in a different direction, so keep playing them until further notice. Some players I did leave on the list and explained why. Others I switched up and put guys from last week in the just missed section. They were just too good to leave off completely, so be sure to check that section too.
On another note, I could’ve listed the entire Chargers’ offense as value plays (I did list a couple) given just how bad the Saints defense is. Julio Jones caught one ball and yet the Falcons dropped 45 points, on the road, against that defense. Keep targeting them this year, as we did last.
Now let’s check out the Week 4 sleepers and daily fantasy value plays.
Brian Hoyer, Bears (vs. Lions) — Don’t laugh, and try to hear me out. Hoyer is dirt cheap. Garbage-time points count. The Bears have a rookie running back starting. The Lions rank dead last in pass DVOA and while Aaron Rodgers only threw for 205 yards last week, he did post four touchdowns last week. With weapons in the passing game like and a high likelihood that the Bears will have to keep up with the Lions from a scoring standpoint, I like Hoyer this week at his price. He did throw for 317 yards and two scores against the Cowboys, and the Lions are likely to be without their best pass rusher, Ziggy Ansah. (FanDuel: $6000′ DraftKings: $5000)
Dak Prescott, Cowboys (at 49ers) — I’m going to leave Prescott on this list until there’s a quality price adjustment. His fantasy points have increased week over week, and he draws another favorable matchup against the 49ers. Last week, he finally threw his first passing touchdown and added another rushing score, but he also had two other passes in which receivers went down at the one-yard line. It’s only a matter of time before he puts up that monster game, and he always has the added benefit of his rushing yards and scores, which provides a safer floor as well. (FD: $7200; DK: $5700)
Isaiah Crowell, Browns (at Redskins) — The Redskins rank 32nd in run DVOA, have allowed a league-worst seven rushing touchdowns and are being gashed for 4.6 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Crowell is averaging 15 rushing attempts, 91.3 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game. Now some of this is smoke and mirrors, given an 85-yard touchdown scamper and some garbage-time yardage in Week 1, but the matchup is right and the volume is there. So if there were ever a time to use Crowell, this is it. On the contrary, no matter when or how the stats come, they count, and two of the three teams he’s played against rank inside the top eight in run DVOA. He’s definitely more of a FanDuel play given his lack of receptions, although his DraftKings’ price is low enough to warrant consideration there too. (FD: $6600; DK: $4400)
Frank Gore, Colts (at Jaguars) — The Jaguars rank 24th in run DVOA, and Gore finally got a solid workload last week, totaling 22 touches for 83 yards and a score. The over/under in this game (49.5) is the second-highest of the week, and the Colts’ implied point total is 26. Gore should once again be heavily involved and has a real opportunity to hit expected value at his current price. He’s a better value on FanDuel, in my opinion, with players like Theo Riddick and LeGarrette Blount in the same range on DraftKings. (FD: $6100; DK: $5200)
Tyrell Williams, Chargers (vs. Saints) — I really wanted to leave Jamison Crowder here, as he’s cheaper on both sites than Williams, but Williams’ matchup against the Saints is just too juicy. Since Week 2, Williams is playing 79 percent of the snaps, more than Kelvin Benjamin. He’s one target behind Benjamin for the team lead (20), he’s the bigger target in the red zone and he’s cheaper on both sites than Benjamin. The Chargers’ implied point total is 28.75, the highest of the week, and the Saints rank 31st in pass DVOA. New Orleans is coming off a short week and might get an upgrade in its secondary if I were starting at cornerback. Just kidding, that would be ugly. (FD: $6400; DK: $4400)
John Brown, Cardinals (vs. Rams) — With Michael Floyd in the league’s concussion protocol and Brown getting back healthy and leading the team in receiving yards last Sunday, I think we’re getting him at a discount this week. The Buccaneers just hung 405 yards and three scores through the air on the Rams, and the Cardinals are coming home with a bad taste in their mouth after get shellacked by the Bills. I expect the Cardinals to come out firing, similar to their beat down of the Buccaneers in Week 2. While Brown played only 57 percent of snaps, he saw 11 targets. The Rams rank 26th in pass DVOA against No. 2 receivers, and the Cardinals’ implied points total is 25.5. (FD: $6200; DK: $4300)
Hunter Henry, Chargers (vs. Saints) — Henry is likely to draw the start again with Antonio Gates injured. He played 100 percent of the snaps last week and caught all five of his targets for 76 yards. He had a crucial fumble at the end of the game, but it’s nothing to be concerned about. The Chargers love his athleticism and believe he can be a big-time tight end in this league. Start him with confidence. (FD: $4500; DK: $2700)
Coby Fleener, Saints (at Chargers) — If Wille Snead is out again, Fleener becomes a really interesting option. The Saints are going to have to throw a ton to keep up on the scoreboard, and Fleener’s price has dropped significantly after two bad weeks to start the season. He finally busted out Monday night, seeing 11 targets and churning out seven grabs for 109 yards and a score. The Saints paid big money for Fleener and want to get him more involved. This will serve as a big confidence booster going forward, and the Chargers rank 24th against tight ends in DVOA. (FD: $5400; DK: $3200)
Just missed: Sam Bradford, Brock Osweiler, Jordan Howard, Dwayne Washington, Jamison Crowder, Will Fuller, Zach Miller and Jack Doyle.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score’s fantasy football expert and co-host of “Chicago’s Fantasy Football Today,” which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.