By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) Let’s check out the Week 5 sleepers and daily fantasy value plays.
Brian Hoyer, Bears (at Colts) — Why not double dip? Hoyer has back-to-back 300-yard games with two touchdowns in each. He’s potentially going to be the starter moving forward, even if Jay Cutler gets healthy, according to Bears coach John Fox ,and he gets a Colts defense that ranks 29th in DVOA and is allowing the 24th-most pass yards per game (277.) Hoyer will be without Kevin White this week, but between Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller, he has plenty of weapons to do damage to this secondary. (FanDuel: $6000; DraftKings: $5500)
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (vs. Titans) — The Titans rank 14th in DVOA pass defense and are allowing the 12th-fewest pass yards per game, but the Dolphins can’t run the ball and coach Adam Gase is a fan of three-receiver sets and chucking the ball around the yard. I’m not totally in love with Tannehill, but there isn’t much in the way of value quarterbacks. Plus, Brock Osweiler just put up 254 yards and two scores against the Titans, and Tannehill always has a decent floor because of his mobility. (FD: $7100; DK: $5700)
Terrance West, Ravens (vs. Redskins) — West is coming off a 21-touch, 113-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Raiders, as the Ravens benched Justin Forsett and then cut him this week. Now, rookie Kenneth Dixon is due back, but he’s likely to be eased into the offense. That leaves West as the main ball-carrier going up against a porous Washington run defense that ranks last in run DVOA and has allowed a league-worst eight rushing scores. Last week, I suggested Isaiah Crowell going against the Redskins. How’d that turn out? The Ravens are four-point favorites at home as well. (FD: $6400; DK: $4800)
Jerick McKinnon, Vikings (vs. Texans) — For those who have loved and waited on McKinnon for a while now, we got our first real dose of him Monday night. He totaled 95 yards on 21 touches and added a trip to pay dirt against a stingy Giants run defense that ranks fifth in DVOA in that department. The Texans are now JJ Watt-less and are 30th in run DVOA and were just gashed for 95 yards and two scores on the ground by DeMarco Murray. With the Vikings early six-point favorites at home, the game script sets up perfectly for McKinnon. (FD: $6200; DK: $4000)
Chris Hogan, Patriots (at Browns) — This is much more of a gut feel than any true statistics behind the call. Hogan hasn’t had a ton of time to build chemistry with Tom Brady given the split reps with Jimmy Garoppolo during the preseason and obviously with the suspension, but there seemed to be some uncanny chemistry between the two when they did play together. Hogan caught one of Brady’s two preseason touchdowns on a beautiful deep ball down the right sideline, and thePatriots get the Browns defense that ranks 30th in DVOA to No. 1 receivers. The price is cheap enough, and he’s more of a tournament play, but don’t say I didn’t tell you so if he pops. You can also yell at me if you use him and he doesn’t, ha! (FD: $5000; DK: $4100)
Sammie Coates, Steelers (vs. Jets) — The Jets can’t cover anyone right now, and the Steelers are coming off a dismantling of the Chiefs secondary in which Coates led the team in targets, catches and receptions. He’s a big play waiting to happen, and the Jets have been burned for a long score every week. The Steelers have an implied point total of 27.75 and are at home, where Ben Roethlisberger and the gang dominate opponents. For an inexpensive price and big-time upside, you can roster Coates as your WR3. (FD: $5300; DK: $3600)
Zach Miller, Bears (at Colts) — And … we are back to the Colts’ sad defense. I could’ve suggested Jordan Howard too, but he’s an obvious play. Instead, we will discuss Miller and the fact that Hoyer is a fan of his. In the two games Hoyer has started, Miller has three scores. He now gets a Colts’ defense that ranks last in pass DVOA against tight ends, and he should see a few more targets with White out with a fractured fibula. Plus, his price is still inexpensive. (FD: $5400; DK: $3600)
Zach Ertz, Eagles (at Lions) — Let’s not forget about Ertz just because we haven’t seen him since Week 1. According to his pricing, it seems he’s flying a little under the radar. During Week 2 and Week 3, Carson Wentz targeted his tight ends 19 times, and the Lions rank 29th in DVOA against tight ends. They’ve allowed six touchdowns to the position so far, and that’s after allowing a league-worst 12 to tight ends in 2015. Fire up Ertz and don’t look back. (FD: $5600; DK: $3500)
Just missed: Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Frank Gore, Bilal Powell, Eddie Royal, Robert Woods, Cameron Brate and Hunter Henry.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score’s fantasy football expert and co-host of “Chicago’s Fantasy Football Today,” which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.