Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 10
By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) Let's check out the Week 10 sleepers and daily fantasy value plays.
Quarterback
Trevor Siemian, Broncos (at Saints) — We all saw Colin Kaepernick throw for nearly 400 yards against the Saints, right? I'm not saying Siemian is going to throw for that many yards, but he's got a great opportunity to hit double and some on his salary. The Broncos' running game has struggled of late, and while the Saints can be a "get well game" for that, they're even worse against the pass, ranking 30th in DVOA. Siemian should have no problem scoring 15 to 18 points, if not more, which makes him a value. (FanDuel: $7200; DraftKings: $5600)
Jay Cutler, Bears (at Buccaneers) — The Bucs have allowed an astonishing 857 yards through the air over their last two games. I'm not expecting Cutler to drop 350 yards, but I wouldn't bat an eyelash at 250 yards and two scores. He looked good and was accurate in his first start since returning from injury, and he has his full complement of weapons with Eddie Royal returning to practice this week. The Buccaneers rank 20th in pass DVOA. And coming off a bye, the Bears' offensive line is healthy too. (FD: $7000; DK: $5300)
Running back
Darren Sproles, Eagles (vs. Falcons) — We've finally received confirmation of Sproles being the lead back for the Eagles. It's been pretty evident, given his snaps have been 80 percent or higher the last two weeks. Now he gets a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in DVOA to running backs in the receiving game and 17th in rush DVOA. Sproles has seen 36 touches and 16 targets over the last two weeks, and that makes him a heck of a value at his price point. The Eagles also have an implied team total of 25. (FD: $5100; DK: $4300)
Chris Ivory, Jaguars (vs. Texans) — New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said his top priority was to fix the running game, and he started that last week with Ivory pounding the rock. Ivory racked up 18 carries for 107 yards and would've had even a larger day if he hadn't fumbled at the goal line. If Hackett continues to lean on the run, Ivory can have a good day given that the Texans rank 28th in run DVOA and are a bottom-five team in rushing yards allowed per game at 125.8. (FD: $5200; DK: $3400)
Receiver
Kenny Britt, Rams (at Jets) — Britt scored another touchdown last week and remains the favorite target for Case Keenum. The Jets defense ranks 30th in DVOA and has been unbelievably susceptible to the long ball. Britt attacks down field and can use his size and body control to beat the Jets' cornerbacks for long gains. There's a lot of value in the mid-tier range of receivers, but Britt is one that sticks out as a great play. (FD: $6400; DK: $4900)
J.J. Nelson, Cardinals (vs. 49ers) — The 49ers have given up the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL with 18, and the Cardinals have an implied team total of 31. We know San Francisco has the worst run defense in football, but Carson Palmer has averaged more than 295 yards per game passing, and J.J. Nelson as a newfound starter is going to be a part of that attack. With his sub 4.3 speed, it only takes one big play to double up in points on his salary (FD: $5600; DK: $4200)
Tight end
Zach Ertz, Eagles (vs. Falcons) — This is definitely a bit of recency bias coupled with solid pricing, but Ertz caught all eight of his targets for 97 yards last, by far his best game to date. The Falcons are high-scorers, and the Eagles are going to have to throw to keep up. In the passing game, Ertz is the best weapon outside of Jordan Matthews. It's a bit of a risk, but the value is there. (FD: $4600; DK: $3700)
Zach Miller, Bears (at Buccaneers) — Miller is a favorite target of Cutler's, as evidenced in the latter's first game back in Week 8. Miller saw 10 targets for the second time in three games and tallied 88 yards on seven receptions. The Buccaneers do rank seventh against tight ends in DVOA, but Miller if sees the volume and Cutler looks his way in the red zone, this is a good play. (FD: $5400; DK: $3600)
Just missed: Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Rob Kelley, Peyton Barber, Eddie Royal, Steve Smith, Lance Kendricks and Dennis Pitta.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
