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Baffoe: This Is That Cubs 'Sustained Success' Thing

By Tim Baffoe--

(CBS) The plan ain't finished. Sorry if your Chicago Cubs World Series pleasant hangover is in full swing, because Cubs brass is all about that hair of the dog.

Winning that first -- yes, first -- title of a planned several was the biggest hump to get over, for sure. All that silly curse talk is forever over, and a line has thankfully been drawn in Cubs history between this current intelligent, logic-driven professional franchise and the blob of superstitious sad that lasted a century-plus. Great stuff, but just because we can all exhale doesn't mean the mission of Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, et al has been accomplished.

"A foundation of sustained success" was some the odd jargon that Epstein used when he joined the Cubs in 2011. It made so many fans and fussy sportswriters crinkle noses. With a club starving for a championship, this East Coast dweeb talking not about just reaching the mountaintop but remaining there and possiblly buying real estate up there and maybe opening a Jamba Juice instead of just going back down satisfied? Bah.

On Wednesday, the Cubs traded outfielder Jorge Soler to the Royals for All-Star closer Wade Davis. While the Jansens and Aroldi of the closing fraternity grab most of the headlines, Davis is what the kids call "a beast." He's only allowed three homers over the last three seasons, and he's the only pitcher with a 1.00 ERA or lower in back-to-back seasons (minimum 50 innings). As in ever. His opponent OPS and home run percentage are baseball's best over the last three seasons. His is the lowest career ERA of any reliever in history with 250-plus innings pitched.

To get nerdier about it, Michael Baumann of The Ringer notes:

"Since 2014, when Davis became a reliever full time, 92 pitchers have thrown 150 innings, with at least 80 percent of their appearances coming in relief. As relievers go, these guys are pretty good, because if you're bad, you stop being a 50-inning-a-year reliever and become a high school gym teacher. Among these pitchers, Davis is eighth in K%, fourth in WPA (despite not becoming the Royals' closer until late 2015), and first, by far, in ERA+ at 351. Zach Britton is the only other pitcher over 300, and Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Darren O'Day, and Mark Melancon are the only other pitchers with an ERA+ over 200 in that span. Meanwhile, Davis has appeared in 20 postseason games since 2014, striking out 38 against five walks, 14 hits, and a single earned run in 25 innings.

"Worry about Davis's forearm strain if you like, or the ongoing march of time, or his salary, but there is no empirical argument that he's not a Chapman- or Miller-level pitcher."

So Davis is really good at throwing baseballs and fortifies a Cubs bullpen that cleans up admirably for an already incredible starting rotation. He's only signed for the upcoming season and cost a piece of what a few years ago was supposed to be part of that young foundation.

Soler was signed to the nine-year deal out of Cuba in 2012. He was one in a series of names that got fans all giddy of what they hoped would come together by 2016, the year Epstein told us the rebuilding would fully bloom. But Soler never quite blossomed as hoped due to injuries and sometimes looking lost at the plate, which is OK. Expecting to hit paydirt on all prospects is foolish. Now he's a Royal, and his best days of slugging may be ahead of him. If Davis contributes to another postseason run, it becomes the same kind of trade-off the Cubs made in giving up star prospect Gleyber Torres to the New York Yankees for Aroldis Chapman in that it doesn't matter how good either young position player is in new cities because the Cubs won the damn World Series and are in better position to win one again.

Sustained success. The foundation is already there -- Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks are all under team control through at least 2020.

(Take a break to wipe the saliva or any other fluids off your reading device.)

Now comes the getting used to every offseason and trade deadline involving the Cubs both paying dollars and prospects for established talent to fine tune the rest of the roster. That's a Soler-for-Davis thing. Down the road, it could even be a Baez-for-(huge name) or Schwarber-for-(wow, what a blockbuster) thing. Such is the brave new world of Cubdom, awkward as it may initially seem as we're still trying to stretch out these new starchy World Series winner pants.

Aw, but that breakup feeling of saying goodbye to Soler, right? Gotta deal with these partings, and there will be more -- some more painful than Soler, trust me.

"When (Jorge) was playing sporadically, he became a little bit more of an all-or-nothing power threat," Epstein told CSNChicago.com on Wednesday. "Because it's hard to get into a good rhythm and you're not seeing pitches as much. You're not recognizing spin the same way.

"When he's locked in, he can work really good at-bats. And he's a hitter – not just a power hitter. So I think it's more likely now that his potential gets unleashed at some point. We're rooting for him."

Translation: We don't expect much from him here, but good luck elsewhere. There are reasons Soler was movable whereas a Russell isn't, and Baumann's piece goes way more into why giving up Soler shouldn't be so bothersome, besides the Cubs knowing that Soler, who really didn't have a spot in this outfield anyway, has value that was likely to irreversibly go down before it was going to rise in Chicago. Getting a top-tier closer for less money than the big free agents are commanding won't be one of this new era's greater tragedies.

Moving this type of once-hyped excitable name isn't over, sorry. Then again, neither is the winning. Drink up.

Tim Baffoe is a columnist for CBSChicago.com. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBaffoe. The views expressed on this page are those of the author, not CBS Local Chicago or our affiliated television and radio stations.

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