By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) Let’s check out the Week 15 sleepers and daily fantasy value.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (vs. Titans) — The Titans rank last in aFPA (schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed), and we saw Trevor Siemian on a bad foot throw for more than 330 yards against them. I’ll take my chances with Smith at this cost in this matchup, especially with his full complement of weapons back now that Jeremy Maclin has returned. (FanDuel: $6800; DraftKings: $5400)
Matt Moore, Dolphins (at Jets) — The Dolphins have weapons, and Moore has experience. Add that to the matchup against the Jets secondary/defense that has been torched all season long, and you have a recipe for success. I don’t believe Moore lights the world on fire, but at his salary he surely will exceed value against the last-ranked pass defense in DVOA. (FD: $6000; DK: $5100)
Kenneth Dixon, Ravens (vs. Eagles) — Dixon continues to see his role grow, and he had a season-high 19 touches last week. He only had 39 yards on 11 carries, but he did see 11 targets, turning in eight receptions and 42 yards while adding a score through the air as well. Philadelphia has struggled of late defensively, and one area it has been bad at all year is slowing pass-catching running backs, ranking 21st in DVOA to the position. The other aspect to keep in mind here is Terrance West saw six touches. (FD: $5100; DK: $3800)
Tevin Coleman, Falcons (vs. 49ers) — With the highest implied team total (33) and highest game over/under of the week (51), the Falcons are set to roll on offense. They’re 14-point home favorites, and that should mean plenty of work for the running backs to salt away the game. Coleman saw the red-zone touches last week and helped pick up the slack due to Julio Jones’ injury. Coleman can do damage as a runner and a receiver, and there’s plenty of opportunity for both Devonta Freeman and Coleman given the 49ers’ putrid run defense that ranks 31st in run DVOA and last in aFPA to running backs. (FD: $6500; DK: $5000)
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (vs. Titans) —The Titans rank 31st to No. 2 receivers in DVOA and 29th in aFPA to receivers. Hill has been far more than a gadget player, showing off his receiving and rushing skills and being utilized all over the field in the Chiefs offense. With Jeremy Maclin just getting his feet back under him, I expect the passing offense to run through Hill and Travis Kelce. Hill has seen at least five targets in his last seven games and over the same span caught five or more balls five times. If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. (FD: $6400; DK: $5700)
Taylor Gabriel, Falcons (vs. 49ers) — The explosive Gabriel continues to dazzle for the Falcons’ vaunted offense. He continuously gets free for big plays and scores touchdowns, and he did it again this past Sunday, getting loose for a 75-yard bomb. With Jones ailing and uncertain to play again and this game boasting the highest team total (33) of the week, someone is going to score via the passing game. I’d put my money on Gabriel. It doesn’t hurt that the 49ers rank last in aFPA to receivers as well. (FD: $5800; DK: $5600)
Jermaine Gresham, Cardinals (vs. Saints) — Gresham has gotten much more involved in the Arizona offense of late, seeing 7.7 targets per game over the last three, and he has five catches in each of them. Quietly, he’s been in a top-five targeted tight end, and now Michael Floyd is gone after getting a DUI. The Saints rank 25th to tight ends in DVOA, and Gresham is minimum salary on both sites. (FD: $4500; DK: $2500)
Charles Clay, Bills (vs. Browns) — This has everything to do with price and matchup. There’s no real reason outside of that to make this start, unless you’re sucked in by the recency bias of Clay’s long touchdown last week. The bottom line is Clay is minimum price on FanDuel (better value) and close to on DraftKings. Clay has seen between four and seven targets since week 5, and the Browns rank 30th in aFPA. (FD: $4500; DK: $2800)
Just missed: Kirk Cousins, Matt Barkley, Bilal Powell, Kenneth Farrow, Sammy Watkins, Jeremy Maclin, Martellus Bennett and A.J. Derby.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score’s fantasy football expert and co-host of “Chicago’s Fantasy Football Today,” which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.