(CBS) Sitting at 43-45 at the All-Star break, the Cubs’ chances of winning the NL Central were 53.1 percent, according to Fangraphs. Chicago’s shot at making the playoffs, via a division title or wild-card berth, hovered at 62.8 percent at that time.
Oh, how a couple weeks have changed all that.
On a 13-3 tear to open up the second half, the Cubs are overwhelming favorites to win the division, as you’d expect at this point. The Cubs won two of three games from the Brewers at Miller Park over the weekend to open a 2.5-game lead in the NL Central and now have an 89.4 percent chance of winning the division, per Fangraphs. The Cubs’ chances of reaching the playoffs are 93.7 percent.
The Cubs’ odds to win the World Series are listed at 14.3 percent on Fangraphs, which is fourth-best in baseball behind the Dodgers (19.5 percent), Astros (15.9) and Indians (15.7).
FiveThirtyEight isn’t quite as bullish on the Cubs’ outlook but still quite confident nonetheless. It lists the Cubs with an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs and 78 percent chance of winning the NL Central.
Baseball Prospectus pegs the Cubs with an 83.4 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 78.5 percent chance to win the division.