Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 15
By Jack Thomason–
(670 The Score) As a reminder, this piece can be utilized for daily fantasy football and/or season-long leagues. The idea is to create one-stop show for sleepers at each position, no matter what league you're playing. Best of luck to everyone in Week 15.
Quarterback
Nick Foles, Eagles (at Giants) — The Giants rank 25th in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA and 26th in 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. Foles is obviously a risky option given that he's been pretty bad outside his one great season in 2013, but he's minimum price on FanDuel and has a juicy matchup with a strong supporting cast. The Eagles are still 7.5-point favorites and sporting a 23.75-point implied team total. (FanDuel: $6000; DraftKings: $5500)
Case Keenum, Vikings (vs. Bengals) — Keenum looks underpriced to me given all the Bengals' defensive injuries. They were just thrashed by the Bears, who had an inept offense until last week. Mitchell Trubisky threw for 271 yards and a touchdown, plus added another with his legs. Keenum has thrown for 280 yards and two touchdowns in five of his last six games, and this week shouldn't be much different. The Vikings are 11-point favorites and have one of the higher team totals this week at 26.5 points. Cincinnati also ranks 19th in pass DVOA and 26th in aFPA to quarterbacks. (FD: $7200; DK: $6100)
Running back
Alex Collins, Ravens (at Browns) — Cleveland has been up and down with its rush defense of late, and Collins has been too hot to bench, considering he has all five of his touchdowns on the season in his last four games. Collins has also seen at least 17 touches in five of the last six games and has caught two or more passes each game in the same timeframe. He's become the lead back in Baltimore and as 7.5-point road favorites with a 23.75-point team total, the Ravens should lean on Collins again to salt the game away. (FD: $6600; DK: $5000)
Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (at Bills) — Drake has been unstoppable since Damien Williams went down. His price wasn't able to be altered either, because he played on Monday night. He has compiled a massive workload the last two weeks, smashing defenses for 334 total yards on 56 touches. Drake has added one touchdown during that time and had another called back due to a penalty. The Dolphins will play the Bills this week, and Buffalo just allowed 34-year-old Frank Gore to rush for 130 yards last week. The Bills rank 24th in run DVOA and 32nd in aFPA to running backs. (FD: $6500; DK: $5800)
Receiver
Marquise Goodwin, 49ers (vs. Titans) — Goodwin continues to shine over the last nine weeks and with a competent quarterback now, he's showing off more skills than just running deep. With Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, he's seen 20 targets in two games and has converted those into 14 receptions and 205 yards. Goodwin gets a Titans defense this week that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA. Tennessee ranks 12th in pass DVOA to No.1 receivers but 32nd to No. 2 receivers. The Titans have given up the third-most touchdowns to receivers but also limit big-play production. Goodwin will be getting volume, and that volume comes at a good price. (FD: $6600; DK: $6000)
Dede Westbrook, Jaguars (vs. Texans) —Westbrook has seen an average of 8.3 targets per game over the last four weeks, good for 17th in the NFL. He's caught five or more passes in three of those games and twice gone for 78 yards or more. He added his first touchdown this past week and gets a great matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 30th in aFPA and 18th in pass DVOA. Houston ranks 23rd and 27th to No. 1 and No. 2 receivers in pass DVOA, respectively. The Texans have also been burned for the most 40-plus-yard plays in the NFL. (FD: $5700; DK: $5100)
Tight end
Jack Doyle, Colts (vs. Broncos) — Doyle played in a blizzard last week, so he only saw three targets, though he did score a touchdown. Before last week, Doyle has seen seven or more targets in six of Jacoby Brissett's eight starts, so he's generally a safe play too. The Broncos rank 25th in pass DVOA to tight ends and are 21st in aFPA to the position. Doyle is criminally underpriced on FanDuel as the 22nd-priced tight end, but he's the fifth-priced tight end on DraftKings. (FD: $5200; DK: $5200)
Jason Witten, Cowboys (at Raiders) — Witten is coming off a game against the Giants in which he got into the end zone, something he does regularly against them. He will now face a Raiders team that allowed seven catches for 74 yards to Travis Kelce, who also left receptions, yards and touchdowns on the field in that one. Oakland ranks 23rd in pass DVOA and 20th in aFPA against tight ends. While Witten has only seen one target in each of his last two games, he's scored on them both. He comes with risk, but he did see seven targets in two of the last three games prior to these one-target games. (FD: $5700; DK: $4200)
Just missed: Trevor Siemian, Joe Flacco, Mike Davis, Kerwynn Williams (if Adrian Peterson is out), Mohamed Sanu, Cooper Kupp, Ben Watson and Julius Thomas.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and weekly guest of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
