(CBS) The Bears had a huge comeback win against the 49ers on the road last week to avoid a deep 0-2 hole, but what exactly does it mean in the big picture?
For a team with championship-contending aspirations, Chicago now had a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight prediction model by the noted Nate Silver. The model also pegs the Bears with a 29 percent chance to win the NFL North, which is tops in the division.
Interestingly, it gives the Vikings a 25 percent chance of taking the division title, while the Packers check in at 24 percent and the Lions at 22 percent. Also noteworthy, Green Bay projects with just a 33 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The model is based off of FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Ratings, which account for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule and prior years’ performance.
Still, check your Super Bowl hopes at the door. Chicago’s odds to win the big one are just 2 percent. Seattle and Denver are the Super Bowl favorites at 12 percent, while Carolina is third at 9 percent.
Check out the full projections below.
(@FiveThirtyEight) September 18, 2014