Zawaski: Blackhawks-Ducks Preview
By Jay Zawaski--
(CBS) Eventually, Chicago hockey will return to our lives.
When it does Sunday for Game 1 of the Western Conference Final, the Blackhawks and Ducks will be playing after nine and six full days off, respectively.
Anaheim is a foreign playoff opponent for Chicago. A team that's annually near the top of the Western Conference standings when the regular season ends, the Ducks have often fallen apart in the playoffs in recent years. This season's a different story. Anaheim has plowed through playoff foes Winnipeg and Calgary, sweeping the Jets and then eliminating the Flames in five games.
What are the Blackhawks contending with here? Are the Ducks a real threat or have they made the best of easier playoff matchups?
Let's break it down. First, here's a look at the regular-season results between the Blackhawks and Ducks. The *score adjusted Corsi* follows the result, then then 5-on-5 Corsi percentage is listed
Oct. 28: Anaheim 1, Chicago 0
*CHI 56.6%, ANA4 3.4%
CHI 59.1 %, ANA 40.9%
Nov. 28: Chicago 4, Anaheim 1
*CHI 65.8%, ANA 34.2%
CHI 61.6%, 38.4%
Jan. 30: Chicago 4, Anaheim 1
*CHI 65.7%, ANA 34.3%
CHI 60.0%, ANA 40.0%
As you can see, the Blackhawks have had a solid edge in play in all three of their head-to-head games with the Ducks.
**Note: For those wondering about score adjusted Corsi, Jen Lute Costella can fill us in. She explains that it weights all of the shot metric data at five-on-five or even strength by including all score situations but at different levels of importance so that it gives the truest measure of how a team performs. In other words, it takes into account how a team may play differently in protecting a lead. Score adjusted Corsi has proved to be the most predictive measure of a team's success. Give Jen LC a Twitter follow to become a smarter hockey fan.**
Anaheim strengths
Top-six forwards
The top line of Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Patrick Maroon is one of the best in the game. Perry and Getzlaf have incredible chemistry together and play a complimentary game. The trio has combined for 34 points in nine playoff games, with 27 of those points coming from Perry and Getzlaf.
Anaheim's dynamic duo isn't just about scoring and finesse. Both play grating, physical styles and will take liberties with opponents. Perry especially can and will step over the line. Expect a lot of post-whistle and behind-the-referee's-back antics from him.
Your old pal Ryan Kesler is back. The old villainous Canuck is now centering the Ducks' second line. Jakob Silfverberg and Matt Beleskey flank him, providing solid scoring depth.
The key to the Blackhawks winning this series will be limiting these two Ducks lines. Look for Marcus Kruger's line to draw the assignment of defending the Perry line, while Jonathan Toews and Co. focus on Kesler. Of course, those matchups will be tougher to dictate on the road. With the home team having last change, look for Chicago coach Joel Quenneville to obsess about matchups.
Goaltending
Starting goalie Frederik Andersen is the definition of "replacement starting goalie" in my mind. He's right in the middle of the pack as starters go. His playoff numbers are impressive (8-1-1, 1.96 goals against average, .925 save percentage), but those numbers have come against Winnipeg and Calgary.
Andersen will neither win nor lose this series for the Ducks.
So how is this a strength? Well, the Ducks have two goalies who can provide this level of play. John Gibson, Andersen's backup, is just about as good. So if the starter struggles, the Ducks have a competent backup who can come in and not flounder.
Anaheim weaknesses
Defense
The Blackhawks have overcome some of the best defenders in the NHL during these playoffs. Nashville had Roman Josi, Seth Jones and Shea Weber. Minnesota had Ryan Suter and Jonas Brodin. The Ducks have the ghost of Francois Beauchemin and 23-year-old Cam Fowler as their best defenders.
When Chicago gets the puck in the Anaheim zone, it will be party time. The Ducks defense lacks the speed to keep up with the Blackhawks forwards, as indicated by the possession numbers above. How can the Ducks slow down the Blackhawks? Good question.
It's safe to assume the slow-footed Beauchemin will be drawing a matchup with either Brandon Saad or Patrick Kane. That won't go well for him.
Prediction
As series get closer, I typically find a way to talk myself out of my gut feeling. This time, my confidence in the Blackhawks is growing. I've never been a believer in the Ducks. They've been the beneficiaries of a weak Pacific Division and a gentle path to the Western Conference Final.
The Blackhawks will win this series in six games.
Jay Zawaski is the executive producer of the Spiegel and Goff Show on 670 The Score and the Blackhawks columnist for CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JayZawaski670. He will be on air for Blackhawks postgame coverage on 670 The Score following Games 2 and 3 and Games 5, 6 and 7, if necessary.
