Durkin: Week 11 NFL Picks

By Dan Durkin--

(CBS) Week 10 was dominated by road teams and underdogs, both going 11-3. Unfortunately for me, my picks weren't as prescient.

The Bengals also fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving one team in each conference -- the Patriots and Panthers.

I stared Week 11 off on the right foot, picking the Jaguars to beat the Titans.

Here's hoping that's an omen for the rest of my predictions for this weekend's NFL action.

(Home team in all CAPS)

FALCONS 27, Colts 20 -- noon

Both teams had an extra week to prepare for this game. For the Colts,  an extra week isn't enough time to cure their ills, and now they're without Andrew Luck. Falcons running back Devonta Freeman should have a big game as Atlanta picks up its seventh win to remain in the wild-card race.

RAVENS 24, Rams 20 -- noon

The Rams finally reached their limit of Nick Foles futility and have turned it over to Case Keenum. That's progress? No, just a sign of the times in the quarterback-starved NFL. The Ravens will sell out to stop Todd Gurley and put the game on Keenum, who won't deliver.

PANTHERS 30, Redskins 20 -- noon

Questions about a contract extension for Kirk Cousins are starting to be asked. (See the third sentence of the previous game capsule.) Don't be fooled by Cousins carving up the Saints defense like a Thanksgiving turkey. The Panthers are an entirely different animal, literally and figuratively.

Broncos 20, BEARS 17 -- noon

Storylines are aplenty in the Broncos-Bears tilt at Soldier Field. The Bears are playing confident, competent football. However, I can't help but think the switch from Peyton Manning to Brock Osweiler is addition by subtraction for the Broncos. This projects as a tight, low-scoring defensive battle, which favors the Broncos.

Raiders 34, LIONS 31 -- noon

It's always dangerous to believe in a West Coast team traveling out East for a noon kickoff. Yet, I'm taking the bait. Get players from this game into your fantasy lineups, as it should be a pass-heavy, high-scoring affair.

Jets 23, TEXANS 16 -- noon

The Texans' defense hasn't allowed a touchdown in 10 quarters and is turning ginger-haired quarterbacks into whiners. Alas, the Jets  -- led by former Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick -- will break that streak and best a T.J. Yates-led Texans offense.

Cowboys 24, DOLPHINS 23-- noon

With the exception of two games, the Cowboys were in every game they played without Tony Romo, whom they get back this Sunday in Miami. How effective Romo is remains to be seen, but the bottom line is Dallas will get plays from it quarterback that it simply hasn't received over the past two months to pull out a close one in Miami.

EAGLES 23, Buccaneers 20 -- noon

With quarterback Sam Bradford dealing with a shoulder separation and concussion, it's back to Mark Sanchez in the City of Brotherly Love. Sanchez has experience running Chip Kelly's offense and should be efficient against the Bucs, who won't muster enough offense against a solid Eagles defense.

Chiefs 27, CHARGERS 24 -- 3:05 p.m.

The Chiefs' three-game winning streak is predicated on winning the turnover battle. They're plus-10 over their past three games and now face a Chargers team with no running game and limited options in the passing game. The Chiefs' defensive line will force a few bad throws from Philip Rivers, which will be the difference in San Diego.

VIKINGS 24, Packers 23 -- 3:25 p.m.

Surprisingly enough, it's the Packers who are looking up to the Vikings in the NFC North standings. The Packers' offense remains completely out of sorts: no running game, spotty protection and receivers getting no separation. The Vikings are doing it with dominant defense and a running game -- and will again this week.

SEAHAWKS 27, 49ers 13 -- 3:25 p.m.

The Seahawks need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and having the 49ers at home is about as ideal a matchup as they could ask for. Blaine Gabbert will struggle under the pressure from the Seahawks' front four, as the Seattle gets back to .500.

CARDINALS 31, Bengals 24 -- 7:30 p.m.

Carson Palmer himself said the matchup with the team that drafted him and forced him to threaten retirement just to get traded is "not just another game." Andy Dalton and the Bengals took a step backward against the Texans on Monday night and will take another as they drop their second straight.

PATRIOTS 34, Bills 23 -- Monday night, 7:30 p.m.

The Patriots are the best in the league at anchoring and adjusting to win a matchup. They'll play their first game without Tom Brady's security blanket (Julian Edelman) but will find other ways to attack a vulnerable Bills secondary. Chandler Jones dominated the Bills' offensive line in Week 2 and will again Monday night.

Season record through Week 10: 87-60 (Last week: 4-10)

Dan Durkin covers the Bears for CBSChicago.com and is a frequent contributor to 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter @djdurkin.