Durkin: The Alshon Jeffery Decision

By Dan Durkin--

(CBS) As Bears general manager Ryan Pace took inventory of the product he generally manages, he expressed honest feelings of disappointment and frustration earlier this week. His team was one of 11 to finish the season with double-digit losses. Still, that fact clearly has no effect on his passion and zeal for correcting the course of a franchise that's now missed the playoffs eight out of the last nine seasons.

While Pace didn't, nor would or should he, lay out his plan to turn it all around, the underlying theme was talent acquisition.

"We just need to keep adding playmakers," Pace said when addressing the 2016 offeason. "And I know we're going to do that with all the different avenues we have. And I think going into Year 2 of an offensive and defensive system is going to benefit us. But we're going to add a lot more playmakers."

The team's best current playmaker is receiver Alshon Jeffery, who just completed the fourth year of his rookie contract and is set to hit the open market. Obviously, letting a player of Jeffery's caliber walk flies in the face of Pace's stated goal of adding playmakers.

The Bears have two clear options for retaining Jeffery -- working out a multi-year extension, which benefits both sides, or using the franchise tag, should negotiations on a long-term deal not find an agreeable intersection point.

The biggest question Jeffery faced heading into the 2016 season was could he carry the passing game without the presence of Brandon Marshall, whom Pace shipped off to the Jets?

Undoubtedly, Jeffery answered that question with a resounding "yes."

Jeffery was on the field for each of Chicago's five most productive offensive games in terms of yardage. He was on the field for five of the eight games in which quarterback Jay Cutler finished above his season average passer efficiency rating (92.3). He was on the field for the offense's three highest passing yardage games. He was on the field for the two games in which the offense scored 30-plus points. The offense averaged 28 more rushing yards when he was on the field.

Emphasizing "on the field" is crucial. It's the central issue Jeffery and his agent, Eugene Parker, have working against them at the negotiating table with Pace and members of the Bears' football administration department, directed by Joey Laine.

"He was frustrated by his injuries," Pace said. "We were frustrated by his injuries. We've got to get a better grasp of that. Part of the evaluation of a player is his injuries and his availability."

Dating all the way back to training camp, it wasn't a successful season for Jeffery physically. In total, he missed seven starts due to calf, groin, shoulder and hamstring injuries. The soft-tissue issues he dealt with in his leg are seemingly connected. Were they a matter of work ethic or not keeping his diet and training right during the season? Or was it just an anomaly?

Barry Rozner and I interviewed former NFL agent Joel Corry on 670 The Score last Friday and discussed the Jeffery situation with him. This his how Corry assumes Parker will address the injury topic when it's broached.

"He's (Eugene Parker) going to say it's a fluke year," Corry said. "He was healthy in 2013 and 2014 (starting all 32 games). He was never right the whole year. When he was right, he was one of the most productive receivers in football."

There's no doubt about that last point. Jeffery averaged 89.7 receiving yards per game, which was the eighth-highest total in the league.

Will the Bears buy in to it being a fluke and reward Jeffery with a lucrative, long-term deal? If so, Parker's asking price is going to be steeper than most realize, Corry believes.

"You're not getting Alshon Jeffery on a long-term deal for less than the $40, $45 million in guarantees with like $30 million fully guaranteed at signing," Corry said. "The deal's going to be around $14 million a year, at a minimum, $70 million over five years. That would be something that would get the agent's attention.

"He's young. He's going to be 26 in February, he's in his prime. As long as these soft-tissue leg injuries are behind him, the last two years he didn't miss a game. He's going to be one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. So, it's not really a risky deal for the next two or three years if you do it long term. It's just the fact that Eugene Parker is going to ask for the sun, moon and the stars."

If the Bears still have doubts about Jeffery and the bargain that Parker drives is too hard, the team can always apply the franchise tag, which will end up costing around $14.5 million fully guaranteed.

Players dislike the franchise tag, as they don't get the full value they would if they would've hit the open market. And despite the franchise tag being fully guaranteed, players have no financial guarantees beyond one year. The season becomes another prove-it year, albeit a very handsomely paid one.

In Jeffery's case, the franchise tag in 2016 may actually benefit him and earn him even more money in the long run.

If he's able to be as productive and remain healthy for the entire season, he'll have successfully incurred the risk of injury and poor performance. He and Parker would then be able to look at the deals signed by Demariyus Thomas, Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant not as a boilerplate but rather a starting point in their negotiations. Pace recognizes this as well.

"Normally, it's in the best interest of the club and the player to come to a longer-term agreement," Pace said.

Will Pace tag Jeffery and force him to prove he can be counted upon to line up every Sunday before signing him to a long-term deal, knowing it could cost the team more in the end? Or does he and Laine, his hand-picked replacement for long-time fixture Cliff Stein, win at the negotiating table with a deal above that of T.Y. Hilton (five years, $65 million) and below the upper tier of newly minted receivers? The Bears have leverage in this negotiation.

Bears fans will have their answer within the next two months, as the deadline for teams to apply the franchise tag is March 7. But for a team acknowledging it needs more playmakers, the Jeffery situation has become the biggest decision Pace has faced in his first year on the job.

Pace's vision for the 2015 Bears offense was to line Jeffery up opposite another playmaker, Kevin White, his first ever draft pick. But a broken bone in White's leg prevented that from ever materializing. Now that vision will have the opportunity to be realized in 2016 -- and perhaps beyond.

Dan Durkin covers the Bears for CBSChicago.com and is a frequent contributor to 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter @djdurkin.