Baffoe: Cubs, Jake Arrieta Owe Each Other Nothing
By Tim Baffoe--
(CBS) Spring is about cute.
Baby bunnies and newly hatched ducklings are cute. Your sad acquaintances on Facebook need affirmation of their existence with mass-posting outdoor pics of their tormented children in new cute outfits for overpriced professional photography. There are also cute rechewed and rebarfed sports discussions.
The latest 'round these parts is of Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta, his waning contract and the encroaching fear that he won't be in blue pinstripes two years from now. The best pitcher in baseball has a contract that expires after the 2017 season (that's after this season and next, by the way, panicky people) with the historic Lovable Losers, igniting Greg Maddux bad acid flashbacks. There are bad thoughts from sports radio caller economists about this franchise being destined for another century of anti-eliteness. And, worst of all, there's the notion of the hometown discount.
It's the cutest of wishful stories for fans and writers who don't want to admit sports don't care about feelings.
Understand something here -- Arrieta owes the Cubs nothing. Yes, they traded for him in July 2013 and got him out of a futile situation in Baltimore, but this wasn't Adam LaRoche attempting a (probably in a counterproductive manner) covert sex slave rescue operation. It's business, and just as the Cubs attempted then to maximize the return on a steal of a trade that included the reclamation project that was Arrieta's touted-but-as-yet unproductive arm, Arrieta should seek what's best for himself moving forward.
"No," was Arrieta's simple-yet-firm statement this week in response to being asked if he would consider helping out the benevolent organization worth $2.2 billion, up 22 percent since last year.
Adding ammo to his "no" is was the deal earlier this week between right-hander Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals for seven years and $175 million.
"As far as the numbers go, I don't think it surprises many people," Arrieta said of it. "Obviously, it's a really big contract for a guy who had (elbow ligament surgery). That is the price for starting pitching, especially really good starting pitching."
That's the cool Jake Arrieta using "really good starting pitching" as a euphemism for himself. The man think he's worth more than Strasburg, and it's hard to blame Arrieta thinking as much of himself.
"I'll let you judge that," Arrieta said regarding what the market now is for him. "Just look at the numbers."
Strasburg turns 28 in July. Arrieta will be 31 when his contract with the Cubs is up. In 2018, he'll be in his age-32 season, which is near when Fangraphs has noted that starting pitching begins to lose a strikeout per nine innings and other positive aspects dip while negative aspects jump. Front offices are very much aware of such trends.
Which brings the cute discussion to another ugly truth. Besides the lack of sentimentality involved in well-run organizations when it comes to gifting deals to veterans, throwing a league-topping pile of money at a 32-year-old pitcher for the six or seven years he's seeking is just bad business. Cubs executives Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer aren't in the business of bad business.
"It does not impact us too much," Epstein said of the new Strasburg deal. "Obviously, it will impact markets. We have to operate in markets. It is what it is."
If there was a World Series of Front Office Poker, Epstein would regularly be at the final table. While Arrieta is betting on himself, Cubs brass is likely betting he blinks in this staring contest and/or the team's available pitching benefits them after 2017. The next draft seems to be one in which the Cubs will focus on pitching after years of cultivating bats that make up the most feared offense in baseball. In recent years, the Cubs have already taken steps toward loading up on pitchers after going with the best bats in the early rounds, but that hasn't yet proved fruitful.
"The big thing for us is starting pitching," Epstein said last week. "We're supremely confident about our ability to identify and develop position players and waves of position players.
"We have not done nearly as good a job with starting pitching – pitching in general. And that has to change."
And another chip goes in the pot.
Also at that poker table would be Arrieta's agent, the infamous Scott Boras. Max Scherzer of the Nationals is also represented by Boras and also bet on himself a few years ago. It paid off for Scherzer, as he signed a seven-year $210-million deal in January 2015. He struck out 20 Detroit Tigers in one game this week, tying the MLB record. He'll also be 32 in July. Nothing is yet proof the Nationals made the right move for the long haul, and if Scherzer gives them sustained success, he's still more likely an exception than the rule.
The Cubs are no longer in the business of desperation. They're the favorites to win a World Series in the next two years. That helps, and this new regime has also done all it can to divorce from everything about the operations and perceptions of the 20th century. ESPN's Buster Olney pointed out that the Cubs refused to overpay for recent free agents they coveted in David Price and Russell Martin, letting desperate teams take them instead, and in the coming years, the Cubs could go the way the Dodgers did with 31-year-old Zack Greinke by saying "thanks but no thanks" to an important player, so as not to end up with an aging, downward-trending starter on a big contract.
Depending on where the roster stands at the end of 2017 and if a championship has been had, letting Arrieta walk might not conflict with the organization's mantra of sustained success, and winning could still occur without the novelty beard and cute pregame pilates.
And winning a title this season or next could also give Arrieta a sense of completion here in Chicago. Regardless, neither side owes the other any backscratches here. It's business, and both should do for what's best them. It's not about a warm, fuzzy ending that's oh so cute.
But at least there are Cardinal folk who suddenly, hungrily have Arrieta aspirations in St. Louis. Shucks, that's cute.
Tim Baffoe is a columnist for CBSChicago.com. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBaffoe. The views expressed on this page are those of the author, not CBS Local Chicago or our affiliated television and radio stations.
