Political Analyst David Axelrod Not Surprised By Rahm Emanuel's Announcement

CHICAGO (CBS) -- A close friend and confidante to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel says he is not surprised by Emanuel's announcement that he will not seek a third term as mayor.

CBS 2's Dana Kozlov reports Emanuel originally announced he was going to run for a third term last October. In eleven months, something dramatically changed.

"I've decided not to seek re-election," Emanuel stated Tuesday.

Mayor Rahm Emanuel's announcement seemed to come from nowhere, made several hours after he helped welcome Chicago Public School students back to school for a new year. The news was stunning to some, but not to all.

"The mayor and I have been talking for months about what his plans would be," said David Axelrod, a political analyst.

Political strategist David Axelrod isn't only a longtime friend, he also served in President Barack Obama's White House alongside Emanuel.

Axelrod believes Emanuel is stepping aside now to give others the chance to enter the already crowded mayor's race.

"He didn't have confidence that he could perform at the same level over the next four years as he has over the last eight. Most mayors don't," said Axelrod.

Political consultant Del Marie Cobb thinks there's more to it, saying, "I just knew that the poll numbers were low and given the poll numbers, where was the path to victory?"

Emanuel's announcement coincides at the same time as the beginning of the murder trial of Chicago Police Officer Jason Van Dyke. Cobb says the timing of his announcement makes sense.

"He knows, obviously, what he did and didn't do around that tragedy so I don't think he was nervous about any revelations at the trial," Axelrod stated.

A source close to Emanuel's inner circle believes he would only step away from the mayor's office if it wouldn't hurt Amazon's chances of coming to the city.

"AKA, he has information Amazon is not coming to Chicago?" asked CBS 2's Dana Kozlov.

"I don't think that's true," Axelrod answered.

It is unclear if there is an apparent heir to take his place, similar to how former Mayor Daley helped pave the way for Emanuel's run.