Illinois Governor's Race: Quinn's Holdout Doesn't Add Up

Editor's note: Quinn finally conceded to Rauner at 3:30 p.m. on Wednesday

By John Dodge

CHICAGO (CBS) -- Gov. Pat Quinn says he won't go down without a fight and insists that every vote in Illinois be counted.

"We will never, ever yield until all the votes are in," said Quinn, adding that it may take a few days to complete that task.

Quinn says it's a basic principle in a democracy--that every voice (vote) be heard. It is also true that in our democracy, the defeated step aside gracefully and without rancor.

The unfortunate fact for Mr. Quinn is that even with the outstanding votes, he doesn't stand a chance.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Quinn is trailing his Republican opponent, Bruce Rauner, by about 167,000 votes.

Here is one reason why that lead is insurmountable for Quinn.

In suburban Cook County, which is Quinn's only stronghold in the state, there are roughly 40,000 mail in ballots and 9,000 provisional ballots that still need to be counted, according to Courney Greve, with the Cook County Clerk's Office. Some of those provisional ballots won't actually count.

Even if Quinn wins ALL of the mail in ballots, he still falls 127,000 votes short.

More realistically, he may win, at most, two-thirds of those votes. Considering his winning margin in the Chicago area is less than when he won in 2010, it may even be lower than that.

Chicago Board of Election Commissioners spokesman Jim Allen said there are about 9,900 uncounted absentee ballots from Chicago, and he can't say how many provisional ballots have been cast in the city's 2,069 precincts.

Then, the task of shutting out Rauner 127,000 to 0 just to pull even in other parts of the state is statistically impossible.

The total number of outstanding votes across the state was not immediately known.

However, that actual number may not even matter.

Rauner won 101 of the 102 counties in the state, with Cook being the obvious exception.

In many of those counties, especially Downstate, Rauner took two-thirds to three-fourths of the vote.

Even in the improbable event that the remaining votes turned in Quinn's favor by a similar margin, the Democrat couldn't make up the deficit.

It is Quinn's right and option to drag out the process, but he doesn't look very statesmanlike when he does that.

In the meantime, Rauner is operating under the clear assumption that he as won, already placing a phone call to House Speaker Mike Madigan, who will now become the billionaire businessman's perfect foil or biggest obstacle.