The Bernstein Brief: Home Run Derby No Harm, But Still...
By Dan Bernstein--
CBSChicago.com senior columnist
(CBS) I agreed with Cubs manager Joe Maddon before I disagreed with him.
Initially, Maddon said he'd always prefer that his players not participate in the All-Star Home Run Derby, but he changed his tune after both Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant chose to do so, now deciding to be supportive of his young stars.
Amid all kinds of anecdotal evidence of post-Derby downturns and messed-up swings, the best thing to do is see if the data show any real negative effect from it. According to a SABR study published in 2010, any decline was coincidentally related instead of causally so, and the authors concluded that the "Home Run Derby Curse" was "fiction."
With most recent statistics included, Scott Lindholm of BP Wrigleyville and Beyond the Box Score did a similar examination and concurs with his SABR brethren that variance in the first half/second half numbers is due mostly to noise, and that it's essentially just another batting practice session.
I understand, and I can't come up with a reasonable counter-argument for why I'd prefer the heart of the Cubs' order to sit this one out in the most promising season for this team in years. I have no rational explanation but feel better knowing that no matter what he says now, Joe Maddon probably agrees.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's "Boers and Bernstein Show" in afternoon drive. Follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein and read more of his columns here.
