Emma: The Case For Kyle Hendricks
By Chris Emma--
CHICAGO (CBS) -- Quiet and unassuming is how one could portray Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks. In a loud clubhouse, he's a soft-spoken presence.
Similarly, those characteristics could describe Hendricks' mound presence. His youthful appearance doesn't intimidate like that of Jake Arrieta, nor does his arsenal of pitches. Hendricks has a fastball that's topped out at 91 miles per hour, a sinker and cutter to complement his four-seamer, plus an effective curveball and changeup. Hendricks is part of a rare baseball breed.
"There aren't that many out there," Cubs manager Joe Maddon said. "It's like, if you're not throwing 95 (miles per hour), you're probably in Double- or Triple-A. It's incredible, the velocity in our game right now."
Nothing about Hendricks will blow away hitters, so he needs to be crafty with his work. When he joined the Cubs in 2014, he was effective. It appeared the team really had something, with his 7-2 record and 2.46 ERA in 13 starts. His Maddux-like style produced impressive results, or so it seemed.
But baseball is a tricky, complicated game, and statistics don't often reflect what's really happening. Sabermetrics lend a closer look at the greater details of each game and its players, with Hendricks serving as a victim to the most benign of statistics.
There's a line of thinking that Hendricks hasn't been good in 2015 -- and that's simply false. As Maddon approaches this postseason, he's doing so with a belief in the 25-year-old Hendricks.
"He's a young major league pitcher who's going to keep getting better," Maddon said after Wednesday's 4-1 loss to Milwaukee in which Hendricks allowed three runs in six innings after being perfect through four.
Hendricks owns a 4.23 ERA after Wednesday's contest, which is way up from his 2.46 number of 2014, but that's misleading. He boasts a strikeout rate of 21.5 percent and a groundball rate of 51.1 percent, both impressive in their own way.
More notably, Hendricks claims a 3.38 xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching), which is 21st in baseball and just behind Rangers ace Cole Hamels. His mark is ahead of the likes of A.J. Burnett, James Shields, Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray, each who round out the top 30 in Fangraphs' rankings.
In 2014, Hendricks had a 3.92 xFIP to his 2.46 ERA. This season, the xFIP is much lower, meaning he's had a bit of bad luck. The purpose of xFIP is to eliminate fielding outcome and using fly ball rate to eliminate bias in home run totals. It indicates that Hendricks has been just as effective as some of baseball's top starters.
Hendricks has needed to adjust his game this season as hitters have gained a scouting report on him. Early parts of 2015 were a struggle, but he's countered by changing his approach. A finesse pitcher must win with effectiveness, something he has figured out.
"You counter that with in-game adjustments," Hendricks said. "You got to have a feel, when you're out there, what the hitter is trying to do."
The Cubs are about to embark on a postseason journey they hope goes deep into October. Maddon is touting a much bigger party than the postgame celebrations of their previous 89 victories. With Arrieta's dominance close to Cy Young level and Jon Lester's playoff experience to trust, the Cubs can feel good about their hopes. But they have more than just two starters to rely on.
Though it's been done quietly, Hendricks has proved his worth for the Cubs.
Follow Chris on Twitter @CEmma670.
