Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 3
By Jack Thomason--
(CBS) We continue to look for those quality plug-and-plays, whether it's because of injury or because we are "punting" a position in daily fantasy. Finding the biggest bang for your buck is always a challenge. A lot goes into selecting matchups and players. I will look into Vegas over/under, team point totals, game point total and spread to gather information to make an educated decision.
One can limit risk by analyzing these different data points and factoring in intuition. A lot of this has to do with daily fantasy and finding values, but it trickles over to season-long leagues as well.
Here, please remember each sleeper is a season-long value and if I believe they are worth a DFS play, I will say so. Let's take a look at this week's sleepers/value plays for both season-long and daily fantasy.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets (vs. Eagles) -- The Jets have been playing stout defense and moving the ball offensively with Fitzpatrick at the helm. He will get a Philadelphia team that has struggled mightily to defend the pass. Eric Decker may or may not play (there's optimism he may), but Brandon Marshall alone can make Fitzpatrick worth the measly $5100 salary on DraftKings and, to a lesser degree, the $6800 price on FanDuel. Philly has allowed 270 yards passing per game while playing much tougher defense against the run, allowing 3.1 yards per attempt. If the Jets are going to attack the Eagles' weakness, Fitzpatrick is going to be key.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (at Packers) -- For starters, Smith isn't going up against the No. 1 defense in the league (Broncos) this week. In Week 1, Smith looked like a star using all of his weapons, from Jamaal Charles to Travis Kelce to Jeremy Maclin en route to a 243-yard, three-touchdown touchdown performance. How quickly we forget after he was smacked around by the Broncos defense last Thursday night. The weapons haven't vanished, and the Chiefs are going to be trailing against the Packers. I expect Smith to put up solid numbers, and he can be dangerous with his legs, which elevates his floor. He may not be exciting, but he's a dirt-cheap option for $6000 on DraftKings and $6500 on FanDuel.
Running back
James Starks, Packers (vs. Chiefs) -- If Eddie Lacy can't play Monday night, Starks is an obvious no-brainer on both FanDuel ($6500) and DraftKings ($3000). Starks had 24 touches this past Sunday night against the Seahawks, totaling 106 scoreless yards. With that type of volume in one of the best offenses in the league, you can't go wrong. If Lacy does play, you could consider Starks a punt play on DraftKings at minimum salary as your flex. There's always the chance the Packers split time between the two because of Lacy's injury and always the possibility of Lacy reinjuring his ankle. At minimum price on Draft Kings, I'm willing to take that risk and free up money to better my lineup elsewhere.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons (at Cowboys) -- The Cowboys have been stingy against the run so far this season, but they have allowed three running backs to catch four or more passes. Freeman isn't going to crack 100 yards rushing and have a monster day, but he can be an asset in the PPR setting of DraftKings for a $4600 price point. He totaled 59 yards last week on 16 touches; four of those touches came via the air. He will get the majority, if not all, of the work against the Cowboys, and volume is what we are looking for.
Receiver
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (vs. Bears) -- The Bears have just been destroyed the last two weeks defensively. Sunday should be no different, as they travel to Seattle with no Jay Cutler and possibly no Alshon Jeffery. Seattle should control the ball at will, and Baldwin has been the top target in the passing game. He has snagged 14 balls for 127 yards and a score thus far, and for a $4000 tag on DraftKings, he's a perfect value play against a weak Bears secondary that ranks last in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. I'd even consider him at $6000 on FanDuel, as the Bears have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL.
Donte Moncrief, Colts (vs. Jets) – The 0-2 Colts should be a desperate team come Sunday when they square off against the division rival Titans. Moncrief has burst onto the scene in the first two weeks, while Andre Johnson can't seem to separate from anyone or anything. Moncrief is making big plays all over the field, and the Titans rank 27th against opposing No. 2 receivers. This game bodes well for Moncrief, and with T.Y. Hilton banged up, he's a value at $6000 on FanDuel and a steal for $4800 on DraftKings.
Tight end
Jordan Reed, Redskins (vs. Rams) -- I don't know how many times I can continue to put Reed here, but until he gets some respect on DraftKings, he's going to stay on this list. The Giants rank 28th in overall defense, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA, and they are ranked 20th against the tight end. Reed has continued to dominate targets, and Thursday night should be no different. With 13 receptions on 17 targets, 145 yards and one score through two games, Reed leads the Redskins in every major receiving category. Nothing should change Thursday against a weak defense. I can't get enough of his $3800 price tag on Draft Kings.
Eric Ebron, Lions (vs. Broncos) – The only place the Broncos defense has been considered subpar is against the tight end. They rank 21st against the position (per Football Outsiders' DVOA). Ebron will have a chance to do some damage. He has been a hot target for Matt Stafford the first two weeks, racking up 96 yards and two scores. His athleticism makes him an a challenge to cover in the middle of the field, so T.J. Ward will have his work cut out or him in this one. He has a great price on DraftKings at $3300 and is similarly low on FanDuel at $5100.
Others considered: Nick Foles, Jameis Winston, Isaiah Crowell, Tre Mason, Kendall Wright, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
