Bears Rated As Most Likely To Snag Top Pick In 2016 NFL Draft

CHICAGO (CBS) -- As the Bears front office began to swap players for picks on Monday, there was one glimmer of twisted optimism: The team is the front-runner for the No. 1 choice in the 2016 NFL Draft.

The latest ratings from the blog FiveThirtyEight now forecast the Bears with the fewest wins this season.

Last week, the ratings gave the team just a 5 percent chance of making the playoffs, also the worst in the NFL. That number is down to 3 percent, now tied with the Cleveland Browns.

The Bears and the Browns are in a virtual dead heat the top draft pick next year.

FiveThirtyEight currently predicts the Bears to win 4.5 games, compared with a slightly more optimistic 4.6 for Cleveland. Four other teams --Washington, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Tennessee -- are likely to win five games.

Granted, it's only Week 4, but if the predictions hold up, 4-12 could get the Bears the top slot when the draft is held here in Chicago next spring.

For fans who were looking for a potential win this Sunday after a brutal three-game opening schedule, there's more bad news.

The Oakland Raiders come to Soldier Field enjoying one of the biggest bumps in the rankings, after a slightly surprising 2-1 start. (Although, their two wins come against far weaker opponents than those faced by Chicago.)

FiveThirtyEight gives the Bears a 53 percent chance of winning their first game of the season.

On Monday, Chicago traded linebackers Jared Allen and Jon Bostic. The team reportedly will get more draft picks -- both in the sixth round -- next year.

FiveThirtyEight uses the Elo system, devised by physicist Arpad E. Elo to rank chess players, to analyze football.