Levine: Cubs' Power Should Be Appointment Viewing
By Bruce Levine--
ANAHEIM, Calif. (CBS) -- Three bombs detonated by the Chicago Cubs offense set the tone for the team's last exhibition game of 2016. Long balls by Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell in Sunday's contest may become habitual as a new season begins Monday night.
Not since the 2008 Cubs has the projection of high-run production and home run totals been this high on the North Side. The 2008 squad that won the NL Central scored an MLB-high 855 runs that season. Will this group of sluggers surpass even the organization's high expectations?
The 2004 Cubs hold the all-time single-season home run record for the franchise with 235, and that's a lot of balls going over the fence. That team was led by Moises Alou (39 homers), Aramis Ramirez (36), Sammy Sosa (35) and Derek Lee (32). . Corey Patterson also had 24, Michael Barrett hit 16 and Todd Walker kicked in 15. Those 197 home runs from seven hitters, was Murderer's Row-like.
All of those records could be wiped out with a healthy, productive season from the 2016 Cubs and their maturing young sluggers. With just a little improvement, this crop of big boys could generate new records for the franchise and possibly the league.
Let's take a look at the numbers and make some projections from my perspective. Anthony Rizzo has had back-to-back 30-home run seasons and could go for 37 this season. Kris Bryant hit 26 long balls with seeming ease in 2015, and I'm projecting him for a big leap to hit 41 this year. Kyle Schwarber hit 16 home runs in 273 plate appearances as a rookie and will go for 30 with regular playing time.
Jason Heyward hit 13 last season in a contact-oriented Cardinal lineup and projects to hit 23. Dexter Fowler had a career-high 17 homers in 2015 and projects to hit 18. Ben Zobrist hit 13 combined in Tampa and Kansas City and projects to hit 16. Miguel Montero hit 15 in just 403 plate appearances and projects to hit 18.
The wild cards in the lineup home run fantasy are Jorge Soler and Addison Russell.
Playing time will be a factor for Soler. If he gets 400 at-bats, 25 home runs should be realistic. My bold projection will be Russell hitting 27 long balls in 2016. He led the team in exhibition play this spring with six home runs, and the power he has generated looks real and sustainable.
Add those up, and the tally sheet says the Cubs will hit 254 home runs just by the nine hitters we mentioned. Please hold on to this copy and let me know at season's end how far off I was in this look to the future.
Opponents, health issues, weather conditions and baseball gods may put up a road block in this projection, but if there's one certainty, the fireworks should be fun to watch for the Wrigley faithful this season.
Bruce Levine covers the Cubs and White Sox for 670 The Score and CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter @MLBBruceLevine.
