By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) Let’s check out the Week 7 sleepers and daily fantasy value plays.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins (at Lions) — The Lions rank 31st in pass DVOA, and Cousins is averaging 250.5 passing yards and two touchdowns while on a four-game winning streak. He should be locked and loaded in a great matchup with an implied team total of 24 points. The Lions just let Rams quarterback Case Keenum throw for 321 yards and three scores. Need I say more? (FD: $7300; DK: $5900)
Brian Hoyer, Bears (at Packers) — Hoyer has four straight 300-yard games and gets a Packers defense that just put top cornerback Sam Shields on injured reserve. The team total isn’t there (19 points), but the game script is given the Bears are eight-point underdogs and the Packers still rank third in DVOA against the run. Add in the fact that starting Bears guard Josh Sitton is likely to miss Thursday’s game — which will make running that much harder — and you have a recipe for a lot of attempts and possible points for Hoyer. (FanDuel: $6700; DraftKings: $5900)
Matt Jones, Redskins (at Lions) — Jones has run for 100-plus yards in two of the past three weeks, with two touchdowns in that span. There had been talk about the coaching staff really getting after him about running behind his pads and running like the 230-pound back he is, and maybe it resonated. The Lions present another great matchup, ranking 26th in run DVOA. And Jones is always capable of catching a few passes too. While the Lions have only allowed one rushing score, they’re bound to regress toward the mean in that category. (FD: $6700; DK: $4200)
Chris Ivory, Jaguars (vs. Raiders) — This pick isn’t for the faint of heart, and it could just as well be T.J. Yeldon who gets the majority work and scores. But the bottom line is the Raiders stink on defense. The Jaguars are also one-point home favorites in the third-highest over/under of the week (49.) It was Ivory who last week scored the touchdown and led the team with 13 touches and 35 yards from the running back position. The Raiders were thrashed by the Chiefs’ running game last week and rank 29th against the run in DVOA. They’re allowing 132.2 yards per game, third-worst in the league. (FD: $5500; DK: $3400)
Ty Montgomery, Packers (vs. Bears) — This may be a cheat code, given you have a receiver playing running back. With Eddie Lacy banged up and James Starks out for a month, Ty Montgomery saw three carries and caught 10 balls for a total of 104 yards last week. Lacy is likely to miss several weeks, according to reports. The Packers traded for Knile Davis, but it’s unlikely he will be up to speed for Thursday’s game to have a full-time role, so I’d expect Montgomery to play a similar role he did last week. He’s minimum pricing on DraftKings. (FD: $5600; DK: $3000)
Mohamed Sanu, Falcons (vs. Chargers) — This choice has everything to do with the Chargers losing stud cornerback Jason Verrett and also them focusing on stopping star receiver Julio Jones. Sanu got back into the end zone last week while snagging five passes on 10 targets for 47 yards. The Falcons have an implied team total of 29.75 points, and the Chargers are much more vulnerable to the pass than the run since losing Verrett and gaining rookie defensive end Joey Bosa. (FD: $5600; DK: $4400)
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (at 49ers) —The 49ers rank sixth against tight ends in pass DVOA, but with Vincent Jackson being put on injured reserve this week, Brate is the No. 2 receiver in that offense behind Mike Evans. He should see plenty of targets come his way, and Jameis Winston has always had an affinity for his tight end. Doug Martin has yet to practice this week too, so the passing game may be needed more so than usual. The Buccaneers did allow Jacquizz Rodgers to touch the ball 35 times before going on a bye, but Winston still threw 30 times. (FD: $5200, DK: $2900)
Jack Doyle, Colts (at Titans) — This is silly from a pricing perspective, but Doyle is minimum price on DraftKings and close to that on FanDuel. He’s taking over for an injured Dwayne Allen and figures to be heavily involved. No one has stepped up in the passing game since Donte Moncrief’s injury, other than T.Y. Hilton. The Colts implied team total this week is 23 points, and Doyle is coming off a four-catch 53-yard performance that included a touchdown. (FD: $4700; DK: $2500)
Just missed: Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Zach Zenner, Jeremy Hill, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, Vernon Davis and C.J. Fiedorowicz.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score’s fantasy football expert and co-host of “Chicago’s Fantasy Football Today,” which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.