By Joe Ostrowski-
(CBS) Points are fun, and the NFL has thrilled the public. Taking the over and cheering for points has been very profitable.
Since Sunday Night Football in Week 3, 13 of the last 16 overs have cashed tickets. That takes us back to before the Bears beat the Jets.
Why the trend? Early season shootouts? Nope. Blowout victories is the answer. Of those 13 overs, only one game has been decided by seven points or less — Tampa Bay’s comeback win in Pittsburgh.
Let’s break down the Vegas perspective in Week 5 of the NFL.
Sharp (expert) money
(Last week: 1-0-1; season: 3-4-1)
Redskins (+7.5) over the Seahawks
Cowboys (-6.5) over the Texans
(Last week: 1-1; season: 3-4)
Bears +2.5 over the Panthers (83 percent)
Browns -2 over the Titans (79 percent)
Steelers -6 over the Jaguars (78 percent)
The biggest move was on the Bengals-Patriots game because it opened prior to New England’s disaster in Kansas City on Monday night. A lopsided game in primetime will usually force a major adjustment. The Pats went from 3-point favorites to 1-point underdogs.
Speaking of a primetime adjustment, the world saw the Cowboys dismantle the Saints on Sunday night. Dallas went from 4-point to 6-point favorites against Houston.
(Last week: 2-1; season: 6-3)
St. Louis (+7) at Philadelphia
The struggles of LeSean McCoy and Nick Foles have dominated the headlines, but the Eagles’ offensive line hasn’t. Philly has had four different players up front miss time for various reasons. When Robert Quinn is on your team, your D-line has an advantage. Having two weeks to prepare doesn’t hurt. Let’s go with St. Louis.
Pick: Rams +7
Cincinnati (-1) at New England
A trip to Foxborough will fix the Patriots, right? New England scored 16 points in its lone home game against Oakland, a team that’s had nine different head coaches in the 2000s. There are 31 quarterbacks with more passing yards per game than Tom Brady. Cincinnati has played as well as any team in the league and is rested.
Pick: Bengals -1
Bears (+2.5) at Carolina
Just forget about the 12-4 Panthers from 2013. Carolina is giving up 141 rushing yards a contest, and the Bears went for 235 on the ground against the Packers. Cam Newton admitted that he’s still in pain from an ankle surgery seven months ago and missed Week 1 due to a rib injury. The Panthers are signing guys off the street to be a part of a three-man rotation at running back Sunday. Brandon Marshall has had a full week of practice for the first time in a month.
Pick: Bears +2.5
(Last week: 1-1; season: 5-2)
The fifth Thursday night game of the year was the fifth runaway game. Green Bay became the strongest option of the week once Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater was announced inactive last night. This is a good time to look ahead. In addition to the picks below, the Chargers, Lions, 49ers and Eagles are solid options.
1) Broncos over the Cardinals
2) Saints over the Bucs
Joe Ostrowski is a host, producer and update anchor at 670 The Score. He hosts his show on Fridays starting at 10 p.m. Follow him on Twitter @JoeO670 and feel free to ask him questions.