Security Think Tank Says It Predicted Coronavirus Crisis Back In October
CHICAGO (CBS) -- A look at the facts about the coronavirus reveals that a security think tank predicted the pandemic back in the fall.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies published a commentary on Monday titled: "We Predicted a Coronavirus Pandemic. Here's What Policymakers Could Have Seen Coming."
Think tank senior vice president Kathleen H. Hicks and senior international security program senior fellow Samuel Brannen wrote the commentary. CBS 2's Lauren Victory talked with Brannen via Skype.
Victory: "At what point did you guys say, 'Oh my gosh, this is pretty close to what we predicted?"
Brannen: "Wow, this is the once-in-a-generation – or once-in-a-hundred-years, as Bill Gates called it – pandemic, and it's here, and you know, this is going to be a big deal. But it really wasn't until someone read the report that we wrote, and I was sitting there and happened to flag the similarity between the two."
Victory: "You also predicted some of the effect that we've already seen on our economy."
Brannen: "Positive that basically, the world would tilt quickly into recession, trade would grind to a halt in many ways, supply chains would be disrupted. But you know, the thing that we hit on in our scenario was that it's really all public confidence and trust, and until you have that public confidence and trust, there's nothing you can do to really jumpstart the economy."
Victory: "What can big cities like Chicago do?"
Brannen: "You're really going to be looking to the mayor as the face of the response, or if the mayor designates somebody who is the face of the response, then having that person have a clear message, being credible, sharing practical guidelines and guidance, and then really taking care of each other."
Victory: "You are a security think tank. How is that related?"
Brannen: "I think health security is national security, and for too long, we haven't treated it like a national security issue."
Victory: "What's the solution? What's the endgame here?"
Brannen: "In the near term, again, it's mitigation. So we need to slow the spread. We need to deal with the illnesses as they come in. We need to stay current on the best available information, and then we have amazing, talented people around the world in our private sector and our government who are working on cures for this."
